Analyzing the future value of Reward cards with data
I wanted to go over the recently released reward cards and see what predictions we can make about these cards values strictly based on a data driven apparoch. I first starterd by collating card data of already released cards to help with my estimates. (All prices where collected on 29/SEPT/2021)Then by looking at the average value of each stat on the card, we can estimate what that card would be worth based on it's stats then of course we would need to account for the cards rarity and scarcity.
Card Rarirty
Here we can see the average value of a card based on a cards rarity
This sort of information can start to give us an idea of the expectations we can have for our new cards going forward. Currently alot of the new common reward cards are sitting between $0.08 and $0.14. However we can see that the average common card is worth around $2.4 indicating that the current reward cards have a lower value. This is most likely based on two factors; the fact that these cards are currently in print and the fact that these cards have a higher print rate than previous sets.
Value based on Splinter
Another interesting graph to look at is the value of the average card in each Splinter. Here we can see by far the most valuable Splinter is dragon, which most likely is in part due to the fact dragon cards can be played with any other splinter. Secondly we see neutral cards also being high value most likely for the same reason. But besides neutral Splinters we can see player prefer the earth splinter above all others.
(Only values of monster included, Summoners are excluded.)
Reward Cards
Cards Averages
Fire Splinter: $20.74
3 Mana: $10.48
3 Speed: $48.75
2 Armor: $38.63
2 Health: $15.37
1 Ability: $29.78
Venari Heatsmith's stats would indicate a value of around $27.29 however as it's a common card which are worth 7.45% as much as the average card in Splinterlands also as the new reward cards are printed at a 20X rate that would increase supply
Total Expected Value: $0.10
Cards Averages
Water Splinter: $25.44
3 Mana: $10.48
1 Melee Attack: $12.48
3 Speed: $48.75
2 Health: $15.37
2 abilities: $120.05
Pelacor Bandit's stats would indicate a value of around $38.76 however as it's a common card which are worth 7.45% as much as the average card in Splinterlands also as the new reward cards are printed at a 20X rate that would increase supply
Total Expected Value: $0.14
Cards Averages
Earth Splinter: $29.11
7 Mana: $73.02
2 Melee Attack: $20.60
2 Speed: $30.87
1 Armor: $7.78
8 Health: $53.94
1 Ability: $29.78
Pelacor Mercenary's stats would indicate a value of around $35 however as it's a common card which are worth 7.45% as much as the average card in Splinterlands also as the new reward cards are printed at a 20X rate that would increase supply
Total Expected Value: $0.13
Cards Averages
Light Splinter: $14.81
2 Mana: $10.28
3 Speed: $48.75
4 Health: $12.73
1 Ability: $29.78
Pelacor Conjurer's stats would indicate a value of around $23.27 however as it's a common card which are worth 7.45% as much as the average card in Splinterlands also as the new reward cards are printed at a 20X rate that would increase supply
Total Expected Value: $0.08
Cards Averages
Death Splinter: $21.44
5 Mana: $16.81
1 Melee Attack: $12.48
3 Speed: $48.75
8 Health: $53.94
1 Ability: $29.78
Pelacor Deceiver's stats would indicate a value of around $30.53 however as it's a common card which are worth 7.45% as much as the average card in Splinterlands also as the new reward cards are printed at a 20X rate that would increase supply
Total Expected Value: $0.11
Cards Averages
Neutral Splinter: $31.41
6 Mana: $48.78
1 Melee Attack: $12.48
1 Speed: $12.82
2 Armor: $38.63
6 Health: $49.97
1 Ability: $29.78
Gargoya Lion's stats would indicate a value of around $31.98 however as it's a common card which are worth 7.45% as much as the average card in Splinterlands also as the new reward cards are printed at a 20X rate that would increase supply
Total Expected Value: $0.12
I find that the values for each card estimate is lower than I would of thought at first glance. The price estimates are around the current going rates of the cards on the market. The biggest impact on the cards price and why they seem to be so low would be that they're 20 times as common than previous sets. One of the reasons so many of these card where printed was to keep the game friendly to newer players and my assumption would be unless we continue to see a large influx of players into the game these prediction will be somewhat accurate.
Pelacor Banit comes out on top of the commons which seems mostly due to the fact she has 2 abilities and cards with 2 abilites tend to be valued very highly. In second we see Pelacor Mercenary gaining most of his value from his high mana cost and health value.
Some people may disagree with decisions that I made in calculating the value of these cards and to be honest there is a lot of room to really analyse them from many different approaches and probably get vastly different results.
Caveats
I think its important to lay out some of the downsides of using this method of analysis.
- Level 1 Cards - This method only looks at cards stats at level 1, however some cards become much more valuable (in terms of gameplay value) at higher level while other cards have more value at level 1 e.g Furious Chicken and Creeping Ooze.
- Simplified Abilities - By simplfying the abilities of each by just counting how many abilities each card has I've grossly oversimplified this aspect of the card as some abilities are far more valuable than others. however in depth of each cards abilities rather than card stats would require an entirely differnt approach.
- Scarcity - A lot of a card's value is driven by supply and with these new cards being printed 20X the rate of previous cards means that needs to be accoutanted for when considering potential value, the game's future popularity is going to have a huge impact on the potential prices these cards will reach.
- Summoners - A key part of any spinter is the summoners a player will use. since none of the new reward cards are summoners I've decided to keep them out of the data set, though it's important to still recognise they have an impact on a cards value and viability in the meta.