Rebellion Brawl Speculation - YGG GAP/Brawls Summary #09

Hiya Splinterlanders :)

The last time we skipped the brawl summary to analyze all the information we already had about the new set Rebellion. You can read the article here. Today we try to combine two things: brawl fray speculation and brawl summary.
The new set - Rebellion should be available in the game on the 5th of December. The presale is still going on, more information here. That will be quite a big change for the game. The first time we will have rotation in modern format. Utamed Set will be available only in wild format, the new modern format will have Chaos Legion Set (with RW) and Rebellion. Of course, that will affect the brawl as well. There was already some discussion on the official discord server about that, but we still haven't received the final information. That's why we will try to do some speculation and maybe some wishful thinking :)

About the last brawl, finally, I got better results with my YGG account, so we go more into detail later in this article. Unfortunately, my tier 4 performance was terrible this time, need to focus more there, because the competition is so strong. And the lowest tier I play - the second, we fought bravely, but only 3rd position. My performance was the best among all guildmates :)

Of course for all data stats I will use a very useful and simple tool . You can check the full summary and more details here.

I usually try to stay up to date with the most news about things I care about in Splinterlands ecosystem. But I have to be honest I've just missed the information from Weirdbeard, that there was a planned rework of Brawl Fray system scheduled for November. Unfortunately, because of downsizing, WB is no longer in SPL, but we have an update about it from cryptomancer:

I will look forward to any information related to that topic. But I would like to analyze what the structure of the frays could look like, more from the point of view of wishful thinking.

I will analyze only two tiers which I'm more familiar with, but I think you should see my point of view from that. For more about the current fray structure, you can read here.

Let's start from Tier 2, currently, it looks like this:

I think I would stay with the same league level. I mean maybe, just for some refreshment, there could be some micro changes: for example put 1 highest league here.
About the formats, I would keep those 6 wild frays (plus two gold foil), and of course, all current modern frays will be updated to Chaos and Rebellion set. And for the rest, that would be nice to have at least one fray with just Rebellion set (2 would be even better, but the number of frays is limited). I think we can exchange 2 slots of Chaos Set for those ones. I would keep one Chaos/RW fray, probably Bronze League is the best.
I have mixed feelings about Alpha/Beta fray, it's still nice to have the option to play older cards (but they are still available in wilds format), but because they should be the most effective with the land extension, I think there can be an opportunity to remove it completely from lower tier fray. Maybe it could be kept in the highest tier for OG players :)

Let's jump to tier 3, which currently looks that:

All main updates apply to tier 3 with the same rules as for tier 2 presented above. Definitely, I will replace one of the Alpha frey maybe with some more interesting Alpha + Untamed format, that could be quite unique format. In tier 3 we don't have any solo set, but I would like to see just 1 Rebelion Only Fray.

As you can see not big changes here, more about it in the summary.

As always, I forgot to get the last brawl statistic (screenshots) directly from the game, and you cannot even check it now :(. Fortunately, there are few tools to get all the necessary information, below are stats from bo0mburst aka @nevermeltice tool (big props to him)

The last brawl:

This time we got the second position, but it was so close :). We need just 1 more win, unfortunately, as you can see we got 3 losses less than our competitor, so we just missed some players to fill all frays :(. We receive 45 SPS and 5.4 merits, so not so bad overall.

Members stats:

The worst thing about that second place is, that we got 4 players with 100% winrate, and I was one of them :). Finally, my performance was much better than my last 2 brawls, but this time I got an easier fray - just gold foil wild bronze where competition is much easier, but still you need to rent some meta cards to get a better chance.
That clean sweep helps me a lot with maintaining winrate for the GAP program, but we will talk more about it later.

We will limit today's battle section just to one battle because we focused more on brawls in general and how Rebellion could affect this part of the game.

Today's match, is definitely a one-man battle, Cutter Brieze. With so low mana, the fog of war, and the rebirth ruleset this card is a monster. Fortunately, my card was a higher level, and even with quite an unlucky beginning, where my opponent got the first buff from blood lust. My setup was just better - more cards, a bigger buffer with that crazy Rebirth ability. That could be a different story when opponents would use magic to attack gladiator units, but usually, they are much more costly. So even with more chance to get buff from my cannon fodder, additional armor from Queen Mycelia usually was enough to keep those units alive for 1-2 turns.

So in the end my Cutter was so strong that even any buff from Martyr wasn't necessary to win that fight :) And remember it is just 1 mana card :).

I think we will still have one more brawl for GAP Season 4. But as I mentioned above with my great performance in the last brawl, I should keep enough winrate to reach Maximus reward.

Below there is general statistics for all the brawls that are included for GAP Season, in average we got first place with 70% winrate.

And of course the most interesting data, member stats. My goal was to reach 80% winrate, I couldn't even dream of reaching top positions with so many skilled players in the guilds (and so great prepared with the great collection - rented or owned). As you can see expectation was just too high :). Playing gold foil frays even in 3rd tier wasn't so easy. Fortunately, I managed to keep my winrate above 60% , so that is the most important thing :) . Maybe next season will be better for me :)

As I mentioned at the beginning for 2nd tier Brawl my performance, even with rather a low-level collection, is the highest in the guild :). (for last 10 brawls). Unfortunately, we sometimes missed some players to fill all frays, so the average placement is just 2nd :(.

I really cannot wait to see new cards from the Rebellion, how they impact meta, how the new modern would look like and so many more things. About Brawls, overall I cannot think about any more extravagant changes here, but I would like to see something new, maybe even with that mentioned small fray rework we can see something surprising :).

I would like to get your opinion about it, Do you agree with my speculated fray structure? Maybe you have some more interesting ideas to get more excitement around brawls ? Waiting for your answer in the comment section :).

I hope you like this kind of report, battle, and strategy presentation. More strategy analysis, discussion, and prediction games you can find on my Wednesday Twitch Channel stream. There will be a schedule soon :)

If you have any comments, please do not hesitate. Do you think I could improve anything just tell me :)