(Source: Splinterlands)
In this article you find 3 calculations.
- Buying Chaos packs now from the secondary market for 8 $ per pack
- Buying Chaos packs during the pre-sale for 22 $ per pack
- Buying Chaos packs after the official launch of Chaos Legion for 4 $ per pack
I did the math for all 3 scenarios and split them into:
- 📉Bearish
- 🦄My personal opinion and what I think the most realistic
- 📈Bullish
There won't be new packs for a long time after Chaos Legions drops. Maybe even more than a year. This is pure speculation, but before a new edition comes out the market needs time to process everything.
This means that Chaos Legion has a lot of time to unfold and I guess this will bring a lot of opportunities.
I watched many videos last week about Chaos Legion and read the official Chaos Legion Pre-Sale Info article multiple times.
If you want to dive deeper here are my 5 favorite Splinterlands Youtube Chanel:
Infidel1258
Bulldog
Luke Plays To Earn
Crypto Llama
Splinterlands HQ
After watching them all talking about the presale and the pros and cons I wanted to put it all together and here is my pro and cons list.
Let's look at the advantages that come with the Chaos packs pre-sale, what happens when you buy them from the secondary market, and what's possible if you buy them after the pre-sale.
Pros👍
Fun!
- It's incredible fun to open booster packs! I can already feel the goosebumps and the thrill while opening a pack and praying to the Lord of Fire and our beloved King Julius to bless us with legendary Chaos Legion cards.
Airdrops
- 1x Chaos pack gives you 300 Airdrop points. This means that the estimate SPS dropped by the end of the airdrop is: 10 SPS.
SPS might 2x or even 3x and 5x within the next year. This is just my opinion. But I am extremely bullish overall about Splinterlands. Warren Buffet once said: Find investments that cost 50 cents but are worth one Dollar. This is it, ladies and gentlemen. Literally.
Currently, Chaos packs trading for about 8 $. I believe, if you buy packs now and hold them till the end of the airdrop you make your money back plus the value one pack has in one year from now.
Further Pros
These only apply if you buy your packs directly in the Splinterlands shop and not on the secondary market.
If this is your first pre-sale Airdrop (like for me) you learn a lot about the dynamics of an Airdrop. Which will be very beneficial for future pre-sale Airdrops
There will be a total of 13 airdrop cards released as part of the Chaos Legion set. If you are like me it's just amazing to get airdrops that have real value.
Each of the first 1M packs purchased will have a chance of receiving ALL 13 airdrop cards!
All packs purchased during the presale will have a chance of receiving a special limited-edition promo card
Each pre-sale pack gives you a 2 % chance to receive a limited-edition promo card
Per 50 packs it's guaranteed to receive 1 limited-edition promo card
If you can afford 1k packs or more during the presale you will be guaranteed to receive at least one gold foil limited-edition promo card for every 1000 packs purchased plus the Legionnaire status
Cons 👎
I want to point out some things that might scare people away from buying packs pre-sale.
The obvious one
One pack is 4 $ + 1 Voucher. This can be expensive.
If you buy one pack now and you want the Airdrops you need to invest 22 $ per pack. The price might change based on the price that you pay for one Voucher.
To justify your investment you need to make at least your money back.
This would mean that all the Airdrops from the pre-sale need to make decent profits if you buy packs during the pre-sale.
Plus we don't know the cards and it's pure speculation 🃏. Which doesn't speak for investments in itself. But more for an opportunity for fans (like me) to enjoy the process of the pre-sale.
Pre-Sale Bonus
I think the best way to calculate this is to look at the price for 100 packs.
50 packs or more give you additional bonuses. But if you buy 100 or more in a single transaction you get:
- 100 - 499 - 10% additional pack bonus
- 500 - 1999 - 15% additional pack bonus
- 2000+ - 20% additional pack bonus
We focus on the bonuses for 100 packs
- Two limited-edition promo cards guaranteed (1 for every 50 packs)
- 10 % discount if you pay with SPS
- 10 extra packs (10 % bonus for a single transaction of 100 packs)
- chance of receiving a special limited-edition promo card that is not available in packs
- chance to receive ALL 13 new cards that will be airdropped every time the next 1M Chaos Legion packs are sold over the life of the set
Let's run some calculations
If you buy 100 packs today for 800 $ on Hive Engine your estimate SPS amount dropped by the end is: 990 SPS
📉Bearish scenario:
Let's say 1 SPS is worth 0,25 $ in one year from now. You made 247.50 $ just from the airdrop doing nothing. (990 SPS Airdrop * 0.25 USD = 247.50 $)
If one pack sells for 10 $ you make 1,000 $. Even if SPS loses 50 % of it's current value you make money! Where can you have that? Exactly. Nowhere.
Investment: 800 $
Revenue: 1247.50 $
Profit: 447.50 $
🦄My estimated scenario:
Let's say 1 SPS is worth 1 $ in one year from now. You made 990 $ profit just from the airdrop doing nothing. (990 SPS Airdrop * 1 USD = 990 $)
If one pack sells for 20 $ that is 2,000 $.
Investment: 800 $
Revenue: 2,990 $
Profit: 2,190 $
📈Bullish scenario:
Let's say 1 SPS is worth 3 $ in one year from now. You made 2,970 $ profit just from the airdrop doing nothing. (990 SPS Airdrop * 3 USD = 2,970 $)
If one pack sells for 35 $ that is 3,500 $.
Investment: 800 $
Revenue: 6,470 $
Profit: 5,670 $
Let's look at the numbers if you want to participate in the pre-sale.
In this scenario I added a second scenario. This includes that you already hold 30 % of the Vouchers you need through the SPS you have staked.
I did this to get a better perspective on the pre-sale and I don't think that it is realistic that one person would buy 100 % Voucher from the secondary market.
I call them A and B scenarios.
A) If you buy today and pay with SPS you pay 360 $ Chaos + 1,800 $ Voucher = 2,160 $
You have now 110 packs.
B) If you already have 30 % of the Vouchers you pay:
(3.60 $ * 100 Chaos) + (18 $ * 70 Vouchers) = 1,620 $
Estimate SPS dropped by the end: 1,089 if you hold 110 Chaos Packs.
📉Bearish scenario - Pre-Sale participation:
Let's say 1 SPS is worth 0,25 $ in one year from now. You made 272.25 $ just from the airdrop doing nothing. (1089 SPS Airdrop * 0,25 USD = 272.25 $)
If one pack sells for 10 $ you lose 12 $ per pack. Total revenue from selling: 1,100 $.
Investment A: 2,160 $
Revenue: 1,394.50 $
Loss: - 787.50 $
Investment B: 1,620 $
Revenue: 1,394.50 $
Profit: 225.50 $
In this scenario you still have the 2 promo cards and maybe you received some cards from the airdrop.
How much they make you if you rent them, use them in-game or sell them is not possible to say. But I think it's possible to close the gap of 787.50 $. But not easy. Especially if you rent out the cards you received. This will take a lot of time but it's passive income and in the end totally worth it.
However I think it's more realistic to say that you are in the greens.
🦄My estimated scenario - Pre-Sale participation
Let's say 1 SPS is worth 1 $ in one year from now. You made 1089 $ just from the airdrop doing nothing. (1089 SPS Airdrop * 1 USD = 1089 $)
If one pack sells for 20 $ that is 2,000 $. But you still lose 2 $ per pack.
Investment A: 2,160 $
Revenue: 3,089 $
Profit: 929 $
Investment B: 1,620 $
Revenue: 3,089 $
Profit: 1,469 $
In this scenario you also have the 2 promo cards and may be you received some cards from the airdrop. Your profit will be higher than 929 $ and easily above 1,000 $.
Again, I feel like Investment B is way more realistic.
📈Bullish scenario:
Let's say 1 SPS is worth 3 $ in one year from now. You made 3,267 $ profit just from the airdrop doing nothing. (1089 SPS Airdrop * 3 = 3,067)
If one pack sells for 35 $ that is 3,500 $.
Investment A: 2,160 $
Revenue: 6,767 $
Profit: 4,607 $
Investment B: 1,620 $
Revenue: 6,767 $
Profit: 5,147 $
Plus your cards from the Airdrop 🤯 This could moon you way above the 5,000 $ mark.
To get a feeling of what we could expect from the Airdrop let's look at the cards that were being airdropped during the Untamed pre-sale:
That are some nice cards 😍
But what if you don't buy packs now and don't want to participate in the pre-sale?
Let's do the math real quick.
To keep it simple we assume that you buy 100 packs when Chaos Legion officially launches.
Your investment: 400 $ which also gives you 30,000 Airdrop points. And 990 SPS are expected to be received.
📉Bearish scenario
Let's say 1 SPS is worth 0,25 $ in one year from now. You made 247.50 $ just from the airdrop doing nothing. (990 SPS Airdrop * 0,25 USD = 247.50 $)
If one pack sells for 10 $ you make 6 $ per pack.
Total revenue from selling: 600 $.
Investment: 400 $
Revenue: 847.50 $
Profit: 474.50 $
No additional bonuses.
🦄My estimated scenario
Let's say 1 SPS is worth 1 $ in one year from now. You made 990 $ just from the airdrop doing nothing. (990 SPS Airdrop * 1 USD = 990 $)
If one pack sells for 20 $ that is 2,000 $.
Investment: 400 $
Revenue: 2,990 $
Profit: 2,590 $
No additional bonuses.
📈Bullish scenario:
Let's say 1 SPS is worth 3 $ in one year from now. You made 2,970 $ profit just from the airdrop doing nothing. (990 SPS Airdrop * 3 = 2,970 $)
If one pack sells for 35 $ that is 3,500 $.
Investment: 400 $
Revenue: 6,470 $
Profit: 6,070 $
No additional bonuses.
I will leave you with the questions from Luke's amazing youtube video
Let's sum up all the chaos - in the Chaos pre-sale
Back in the past, I saved up all my money to buy not just one Magic the Gathering pack but a whole display with numerous packs. I could open packs all day long. Splinterlands is a P2E game but it's so much fun. I would play it even without earings.
I feel that I will do both.
I will participate in the pre-sale for 100 packs AND will try to buy 100 packs after the official launch and pray again to the Lord of Fire and our king Julius to get what I want.
My calculation is very simplified.
You actually need to subtract at least 10 % Airdrop points if you buy after the pre-sale. Because you miss 30 days or more to receive the Airdrop. This means that you won't make as much as you see here in the 3rd example.
If you already have the money in DEC or SPS you might ask yourself if it's not just better to leave everything in your DEC wallet because DEC gives you the most Airdrop points.
Plus I missed out on factor in the collection power you will get from the pre-sale promo cards. Which I believe could make a difference of up to 10 %.
All you read here is just my opinion and by any means not financial advice. I am just here to entertain you :)
In the end, I think that it's both very exciting and profitable to participate in the Airdrop.
Forget about the numbers for a moment and try to see the benefits you learn. There will be many more Airdrops in the future. If not in Splinterlands then in other crypto games.
I think all of this is like the wild west. It's full of opportunity, frustration, sleepless nights, and delightful moments when your assets 5, 10, 50x in just a couple of months.
Don't take all of this for granted and ENJOY the ride.