We are now well into Conclave Arcana General Sale and are less than three days away from the end of the Season. So I decided to take a look at how many Splinterlands players are playing in Modern League right now.
There are multiple ways of looking at this data and I will start with a high level view:
The chart above is showing that we have right around 17,000 Modern battles per day and around 56,000 Wild battles per day. If we take 17,000 and divide by 24 battles per player (though it could be more as players get free energy from chests) we get: 708 daily players in Modern League. That is actually not bad!
If we look at the total battles of fifty six thousand and divide those by twenty four battles per day we get: 2,333 total players, that number includes players that play survival which might inflate the number of players somewhat. There are between 3,700 and 5,300 Survival mode battles per day. This is not a big number, so I will not exclude those battles from my calculation. I am trying to make an optimistic projection in regards to the total number of Splinterlands players.
We also have another metric from Splinterlands on Active Accounts that tells us that we have 4,645 Daily Average players. These must be players that perform some sort of activity in Splinterlands and not necessarily play battles or it is possible that some players play one or two battles per day so my number of 2,333 total players may be off.
I also remember the days around 2022 or so when this metric showed around 500k Active Accounts... We do know now that those were mostly bots.
The more interesting data points for the total number of players playing in Modern League comes from the Leaderboard data in the game.
I will start with a modern player that is in the Diamond 3 with a rating of 2,880 and ranked at 239. That is surprising that three days from the end of the season we have less than 240 players at mid Diamond 3 or above!
From the image above we see that the bottom four players on the Modern Leaderboard are all in the Champion League, this means our player base is fairly top heavy and we probably have less than 150 players in Diamond 3, Diamond 2 and Diamond 1 leagues...
So how are things in the Gold leagues? Here we have a player towards the bottom of the Gold 2 league rated at 2,260 points and coming in at 353 position on the leaderboard:
So between the bottom of the Gold 2 and Diamond 3 we have around 154 players that is a good number of players and if our estimate of 708 players in Modern League is correct we are about half way towards the bottom of the range. So about half of the modern players are playing in Gold 2 or above with three days remaining in the season.
Now lets go down to just under middle of Bronze 2 level. Here we have a player with much lower rating of 520 and ranked at 370! This is actually really surprising that between ratings of 520 and 2260 there are only 17 players!
Basically nobody is playing in Bronze 2, Bronze 3, Silver 3, Silver 2, Silver 1 and Gold 3. Seventeen players in 6 League Tiers! Less than three players per League Tier. These Tiers are Ghost Tiers.
Where is everybody?
And here is the answer to that question:
So between Mid Bronze 3 and Low Bronze 2 we have about 160 players!
It appears that we have around 300 fairly high level players and about 400 players with very low cards that are mostly Bronze players in Modern.
These numbers seem to indicate that we have around 300 high level players in Modern League, the implications of this are concerning, but at the same time very interesting. Imagine if we could get 3,000 high level players into Splinterlands and what that would do to Splinterlands asset prices...
Another interesting fact to look at is that with only 300 players in Modern we sold:
109,905 Starter packs at: 1,000 DEC = 109,905,000 DEC
1,160,207 Standard packs at: 4,000 DEC = 4,640,828,000 DEC
232,074 Alchemy packs at: 12,000 DEC = 2,784,888,000 DEC
116,001 Legendary packs at: 24,000 DEC = 2,784,024,000
Total DEC: 10,319,645,000 or $9,638,548 at current DEC price of $0.934 for 1000.
So we have spent $9.6 Million dollars for 300 high level players in just Conclave Arcana and not counting Rebellion. This comes out to $32,128 per player. So either these numbers from Splintercards are not correct or these cards are used in Wild or some players are sitting on a good number of packs or cards that are not really being played in Modern.
Conclusion
Quite interesting numbers and while we seem to have around 700 total players in Modern with about 300 playing in Diamond and above the amount of money being spent on packs is quite impressive. Hopefully nowhere to go but up from here...
Please share your thoughts on these numbers and what they mean for our game going forward.
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