Ahhh... my first post in well over a year and half. Maybe almost 2. This feels weird. How do I do this again?
While inactive on the posting front, I have been accumulating max gold Splinterlands cards behind the scenes. Besides doing this in a deep bear market, SPL's issues made this a true test of faith and testicular fortitude. Regardless, as a late adopter of the game, I wanted to diversify and be primed for the next cycle if SPL and markets recovered. Despite routinely questioning my sanity for trading blue chip crypto for shiny falling knives, every purchase felt like it had thorns. Since you're supposed to be greedy while others are fearful, and as sellers continued dropping prices, I couldn't resist. There was definitely blood in the streets.
As of today, I'm at ~11.6 million Collection Power, where only 3,100 CP isn't gold foil. Gold all the way... Roughly half is Untamed, which I don't mind at all. I also stocked up on multiple modern max gold summoners. I'll either look like a genius for this, or a fool, but I think they've been far too undervalued just before cards can be staked on land. I'm also not rushing into Rebellion, so I didn't need to liquidate anything on a dry market to buy packs.
My Predicament:
While the majority of SPL enthusiasts and staff are naturally excited and focused on Rebellion & Land, the "rebel" in me prefers to go against the grain. Couldn't resist... I like building when and where it's quiet and oversold. It keeps me in a position of strength to acquire what's undervalued or on clearance with better purchasing power. Crypto is cyclical. At least I got the buy low part right this time.
While there are 150K plots, theoretically super scarce, land doesn't appeal just yet. I have some, but the thought of owning and renting scarce cards with significantly less competition is exciting. If land truly soaks up as many cards as it should, the rental market for rare gold cards for tournaments and end of season play should get a strong boost. That's my bet, and we'll see that lay of the land soon to finally see its impact.
Also, if SPS ever moons, people will pay a nice premium in DEC for key cards that'll help them earn/win more, especially whales that still play in Wild. Supply and demand should shine, but a lot of SPS' price action rests on the company turning the faucet down. If all else fails, I can also sell key cards and dupes during a future bull market to recover and/or ideally exceed initial costs.
After going heavy in an SPS liquidity pool around Splinterfest (the wrong time), I have plenty at work there, and feel the pain of severe impermanent loss. On the bright side, ongoing yield fueled plenty of card buying, but mainly as a rationalization due to sunk costs. I should've prioritized replenishing the other half of the pool, especially since this would've given me far more purchasing power as cards plummeted. Lesson learned. Don't make big financial decisions around conferences filled with optimism, hype, and a highly inflationary token.
Thankfully, it seems like recent organizational changes have righted the ship for renewed hope that the company will survive. This is the frontier of web 3 gaming, and while there are unlimited risks, a risk averse approach is critical.
Game Play:
After trying to play post Splinterfest (where I somehow got 4th place in the main tournament using lots of cards for the first time), I didn't find it fun or worth the grind. I quickly switched to renting everything to focus on IRL and let the bear market pass. After popping in to play once or twice, renting continued to feel like the right move. The passive income was generally nice, but it also let me get more cards to compound revenue. I did use Splex's Golem for a while, but gradually weaned off of it so I could set my prices. It's not great at pricing certain scarce cards.
Fast forward, I started playing again a few weeks ago to enjoy my gold UT cards a bit before they migrate. A bot-less Modern hasn't been too difficult, but this oasis won't last long. I was also actually trying to buy a max Gold Kitty to be a force in Wild, but the seller ignored my messages for weeks -- despite me buying many cards from them at the same time. Their loss. In hindsight, it's too steep of a gamble with so many new summoners coming, so it's currently it a blessing in disguise. That would've certainly been my last hurrah on spending for a while, and it'd have made @blewitt, the joker who got me deep into this game, very jealous -- my ultimate goal.
Game Plan:
I'll try Wild soon to give it a fair shake, while renting dupes. If that doesn't pan out, or if playing bots ruins the fun, I'll go back to renting everything for DEC to snipe gold Rebellion cards once dust settles.
Renting will also turn my disdain for bots into a positive, since they'll likely need my cards more than ever. With land soaking up older cards, and nearly all of mine at max level, I'm hoping to make them pay up for their reward extraction enterprises. The same applies for end of season and tournaments. Worst case, I can sell my UT during a bull run, or land surf like a champ down the line. Patience should pay.
In closing, being a DEC factory feels right. I'll figure out grain and research later, and card and spell production is very far away. Since I'm only interested in gold cards, I'm also not buying packs. I've done enough gambling by bringing new money into the ecosystem while most were recycling funds or exiting, what I see as a fair contribution. I've also combined plenty of gold cards along the way to chip away at overall supply. If still being unable to chat in Mav is the cross to bear, I'll be ok.
Well that's it. Still awkward. Regardless, it's an excuse to blog again, see who's around, and be more front-facing in the SPL/Hive communities. I can also look back down the line to see how right or dumb I was.
Feel free to offer trades for my dupes if you have key BCX or cards I may be missing. Gold only! If you happen to have any constructive thoughts, feel free to share.
Thanks,
@steemmatt