The First month-long Conflict has been up and running for about 113 hours. The conflicts require staking of cards to Wagons, in order to earn chances (like a lottery) at getting a drop of Rage, a high Mana Legendary dragon card, the prize for the first Conflict. There are 4000 card prizes available that will go to the chances.
So far, ~126,000 tickets have been generated, which means that currently, every 31 chance tickets will on average get a card. But, the Conflict is a month long, which means that far more chances are going to be generated. And so far, ~1,118 chances are being created on average an hour. This will of course change a little, as people will enter more cards into the Conflict, or remove some to sell, though I suspect there won't be much coming off Wagons for now.
However, at this rate, out of the total ~724 hours, ~810,000 chances will be generated, meaning that it will average around 1 card per 202 chances. That is interestingly for now, almost the same as the chances required to get a guaranteed card. To qualify for a guaranteed card, a full 200 chances (not part chances) are required, so assuming that all of those chances are full lots of 200, then there would be ~4000 more Rage cards getting printed. However, as part chances don't qualify, and there will be those who will not reach the 200 threshold at all, there will be some number less than that. My head is not great with numbers, so I will guess at around a total of 7800.
Precisely 7823
Some of these will be gold of course, but there are no guaranteed golds. instead, there is the usual 2% chance of getting a gold, with the ability to boost this to a 4% doubling, by using 20 Vouchers before opening the drop. That means that if an account has 1 guaranteed card, and 1 "chance" card for a total of 2, they can pay 40 vouchers to increase the odds of getting a gold. Those 40 vouchers currently have a street value of $1.52, so it might be worth it.
For instance, I am currently on track to get around 20 guaranteed, and assuming my luck is okay, I will get 20 chance cards also, for a total of 40. This means that I will need 800 vouchers at a current value of $30.40 to boost my percentage for gold to 4%. I will do this, because I assume, that even though there are going to be lots of Rage cards, Golds will still be relatively rare and at least worth more than $30. If this gets me one more gold card, then it is worth it. Looking at the numbers, it should get me an additional 1.6 cards, but my luck for golds isn't great. So much so...
Since that isn't plausible, no matter how deserving I am, I am hoping to get at least 4 gold Rage cards, so that then I would be able to have a max. Not only this, each gold also has 12500CP, so rolling a max GFL into the next conflict would mean another 50,000 CP added to the kitty. And of course, we can assume that all of what gets dropped will be staked on a wagon, so even if no packs are bought, the total CP will edge up for the next conflict round.
I bought a couple GFLs that would max some of the ones I got from packs, but for a look at what is going on in the Rebellion Gold Legendary markets, there are 15 Rebellion Legendaries. Across all of them, there are currently only 34 Gold Foil Legendaries available, and the low buy is $170. Even the Gold Epics are in short supply and have a Low Buy of $32,50. It wasn't that long ago that there were Gold Foil Legendaries from Riftwatchers around the $30 mark.
If one thing has come out of this new airdrop method, it is that the Gold Foils have been made great again - at least for the next 9 months. Also, from what I hear, the rental market is looking pretty healthy for rentseekers, as while you can play Rebellion cards on Wagons, you can't sell or rent them. This means that the few cards there are available, have a high price on them. For instance, the max summoners are looking like this:
That is quite high for a new set of cards.
And, I guess for some, it is worth it. Especially those who might not have a large set of Rebellion cards, making putting them on wagons less appealing, as the number of chances are low. What is certain though, it has caused a bit of disruption across the Splinterlands economy, and will do for some time to come. I think that in 25 days when this first conflict ends, people will assess and make a decision as to whether they are going to mount up and ride in for more, or pull their cards and say, not worth the battle.
The more that pull out, the higher the chances of getting cards from chances, and the more that goes in, the more guaranteed printed cards there will be. I am not sure how this works, but from what I have read, all conflicts will have guarantees at 200 chances, which means that later cards will likely have a higher print rate. How much higher, will depend on packs sold, and packs opened.
At least for a short period, there is some more numbers to play with and see counters going up. As of right now, I am sitting in 44th position on the leaderboard and have collected 632 chances.
That is three Rage cards.
All Gold?
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]