Hi everyone,
I made a couple of thousand dollars flipping cards on splinterlands.
And you can as well.
But as a fresh starter it can be difficult to know how to make value estimates for cards and predict price movements. So here are a few basics that can help you get started.
Scarcity
Scarcity is the most important factor of value. Depending on the rarity of the card, the price increases or decreases. That's why Alpha collections are most valueable, especially when there are only 25 cards of a particular type left. They will likely remain the most valueable cards forever.
Collectors value
Many players simply love splinterlands. They collect cards because they love them and have an emotional connection to the cards. Similar to how people collected stamps decades ago. For them it is less relevant how strong a card is in battle, instead the personal attachment counts. Old cards or rare cards are most likely to achieve high value for collectors but also unusual, funny, cute or weird cards are likely to achieve a good value for them. Everything that sets a specific card apart from the others is a good candidate.
Card Strength
In Splinterlands there are certain gamebreaker cards. They have value because they enable you to level up quickly. Examples are the Lama and Kron. These cards will be in demand as long as they are gamebreakers. Their value could quickly evaporate when new cards, counter cards, or spells emerge. It's e.g. not unlikely that players have a strong counter against Kron+Lama as soon as spells come out. However, as long as they are gamebreakers they will be quite valueable.
Availability
Overall scarcity is one factor but another important one is availability. Availability is determined by the willingness of players to sell. If you check the market some cards, even gold foil legendaries are quite available, because 5-10 players are selling this card at the moment. They will likely underbid each other and the price will go lower regularly. If you however buy a card that is less available e.g. there is only 1 of them available in the market, you determine the price and have higher chances to achieve a good price because there is - at least temporarily - no competition.
DEC value
If you are completly unsure about how a NEW card should be valued also look at the DEC value which can give you a very rough and basic benchmark. This is especially useful when new cards come out and you are not sure how to value them in comparison to older collections. I made a mistake recently with overestimating the price for one of the new reward cards because I ignored the DEC value and just based the purchase on my previous experience with gold foil legendaries.
Market conditions
Obviously, there is another superpower that determines card prices and nobody can entirely say in which direction it will go: The market conditions in splinterlands. Depending on market conditions, the influx of new players, the value of DEC and SPS, card prices will increase or decrease.
Card levelling
Some cards may look less valueable initially because they aren't scarce. However, taking a closer look, they need a large quantity of cards for being leveled. That means the number of cards in circulation will decrease quickly and the value is likely to increase.
Monopolies
Yay, well. Having a monopoly is hard. Especially when there are 50 cards that are each valued at 2k. However, by buying the same card multiple times you get a greater share of a specific card, meaning you have more control over the price in the future. You can sell them one by one.
Before you jump into it, it can be helpful to just look at card prices for a few weeks and study them. Make a few notes about cards you may be interested in purchasing and see how prices develop over time. Especially monitor card prices when new things are happening e.g. new reward cards are released or a feature gets implemented. These factors can heavily impact the value of cards.
I hope this was helpful. Have a great day splinterlanding!