I believe SPS Splintershards will one day be worth only .01 each. I also predict this will happen long before SPS sees .10 cents again. I think SPS will slowly drop (along with card prices) as SPS continues to flow in through many different avenues and bottom out. Much like the overprinted reward commons that are selling for .01 each, I think SPS will find a similar floor. There are obviously many factors that can impact this prediction along the way but here are my reasons:
-Daily SPS Minting vs SPS Spending relationship (especially concerning during major releases of Riftwatchers and Tower Defense)
-The percentage of SPS that is minted to accounts that are only extracting value (bot farm and over extended accounts)
-The reduction of growth with new users
-New user retention (the first month experience is not enjoyable for a majority new players)
-The cost to be competitive
-Paltry new user rewards (very little incentive to buy in unless you can afford to go all in)
-Certain whales/groups are buying up assets at a set resistance level which is temporarily holding up the floor on certain cards and coins. But this could dry up and the freefall could be fast. (I can imagine a controversy, or a hack, or split playerbase, or govt regulations being the catalyst to a major sell off)
Right now, we have a lot of bot farms extracting value, over extended players trying to get back some ROI, and a deafening silence from underappreciated and under incentivized new player base. You also have a big community of HODLers who are thankfully not selling (yet), but also not buying: swimming in a pool full of free chicken tenders.
In many ways, this has been a great time to be an active player in Splinterlands as the new Riftwatcher set was released, Tower Defense packs and high ROI nodes have become up for sale. Despite all the choices on where to spend our money, many players are still opting to not. The lack of spending is a big concern for the short term price of Splinterlands assets that do not specifically contribute to an increase in returns.
However, I am still bullish long term. And here is why:
-Stacking SPS produces Vouchers. In many ways the value of SPS tokens transferred to vouchers over time. Voucher prices may also drop in value, but because the team can basically decide the value of vouchers for redemption of in-game goods these could easily hold a premium even if SPS itself keeps falling in price.
-If the Splinterlands team finds a way to reduce bot farms, while rewarding new players and active bronze and silver accounts it will start to reverse the extraction issue and incentivize new players to join.
-A good training mode, achievements system, and single player adventure mode (I would love to vote up a proposal for this) would drastically improve new player retention, and if handled with the same attention and care as the rest of their products would teach the mechanics, introduce lore, and immerse the player in all facets of the game (market/leveling/gameplay/collecting etc). You are welcome to check out my proposals from 9 months ago: Achievement System and Adventure Quest
-High use case assets are still very valuable and look to retain their value even if other assets drop in value.
-SPS has value beyond its monetary worth. Staked SPS is still generating airdrops for other projects and generating its own additional SPS and vouchers along with voting power.
-A general bullish crypto market will dramatically effect Splinterlands and all of the assets involved. This may not be for years, but would likely be significant (as it has in the past).
-The Splinterlands team has built good products, good framework, and a talented team; which is reinforced by transparency (town halls), democratic voting system, and a history of accomplishing a variety of goals that they set for themselves. To me, this means: If Splinterlands wants SPS to be worth more they could find a way.
Right now, it appears it is more important for Splinterlands to prioritize; land, boss fights, Genesis soccer, Tower Defense and maintaining the current game; and that may be a recipe for one cent SPS. I would argue that maybe during the next few years the value of SPS may be less in the dollar value, and more in what it generates and what it represents moving forward.
Thinking ever longer term, once the kindling does get set on fire from any of the bullish possibilities…..to the moon we go.
Posted using Splintertalk