April so far has been the King of crab walk when it comes to price this year. However, it was better than March, when we had constant dumping.
From 75k, we saw BTC fall all the way to 85k and even reach 86k for a while before settling at 85k and repeatedly testing 84k. Today, however, we saw a slight drop to 83k, which I believe is part of the crab walk; if it drops to 82k, we can officially say the dip is on.
The expectation was that April would be a bullish month. Although the first half of the month was not ideal, the second half has shown some improvement and provided a psychological sense of relief.
So, unless we see a drop to 82k, I believe APRIL has been relatively stable, and this may continue until the end of the month.
So it appears that May and June may simply continue the dump and recovery sequence until Q3. I say this for sentimental reasons rather than anything realistic.
However, it appears that May has always been an inconic month in every bull run year, so a pump could occur, but we will have to see if this historically correlates. Although retaliatory tariff announcements are not yet complete.
I have a feeling that China is looking for a way to sucker punch the US government, so this could happen again and tank the market, but if the market was not supposed to tank, I am confident it will recover.
Q3 expectations
Anything can still happen between now and the end of June. June is the final month of Q2, so who knows, Q3 could be a completely different story. Q3 is still about 70 days away, which feels like a long time, but I can not wait for us to be done with Q2, even though I know a lot can happen between now and then.
So we're not seeing a lot wailing, cursing or panic and that's simply because April has been relatively stable. Another possibility is that the further we go, the less panic we will see.
Personally, I believe that the largest dumps of the year occurred in March. This does not mean that we will not see more dumps; rather, I believe that the largest dumps occurred in March, and that the entire narrative will change beginning in May.
Just one month of stability and no one is wailing as they did in March, this does to show you that when things turns around people forget completely that they were onceFUDers
The BTC hedge tactics I've learned in this cycle
If there's one thing this cycle has taught me, it's that BTC can be your stability pump to print money with alts. Let me explain what I mean. We all know that most newly converted BTC maxis started buying at 50 to 60k level and because of this, they're likely only going to see x3 profit or a more if they ride the wave to BTC's ATH this year.
However it even pays when you buy it earlier, else x3 profit is hardly life-changing, it only gives a form of mental guarantee.
Newly converted Maxis will definitely not see any life-changing profit unless you have 200k$ to put in
So unless you're buying BTC early, you might have to wait for 10 bull cycles to become financially free, but you could be dead way before then.
At 20k in December 2022 I am sure only believers were buying, but guess what? It is actually those BTC maxis who bought at 20k that are guaranteed x6 or x8. So for instance if you bought BTC with 200$ at 20k and BTC hits 180k maybe in September, then that fellow will make 1800$ at that price.
However if you bought BTC at 20k in 2022, and rotated back into alts when BTC hits 80k. You can potentially print money when alts go crazy.
The idea is that BTC can always be used as a hedge during a bear market cycle; it is similar to a stable coin, but with a higher probability of price appreciation. Do you completely understand what I mean? Take the information to the bank.
If you are not learning and paying attention, I am sorry for you. This cycle is actually that cycle where everyone has to learn and become experienced at what they're doing, because in 2029 if you're alive and well, then that information and all that experience from this cycle can basically put food on the table.
Celebrating SPS
Anyway, we have seen the market retrace slightly today. BTC still controls pump and dumps, but we will not say we are officially back until alts start pumping independently while BTC consolidates.
Anyways it's great to see our own native SPS do over 60%. Inasmuch this pump is due to the incoming conclave arcana, we hear that there's been a lot of SPS burning by Splinterlands INC.
If you bought in April (ATL) 2024, congratulations you're over 60% in profit, and that's the gain of believing in something.
Interested in some more of my posts
Why Is the grind getting harder?
Monopoly Is the Death of Civilization
Survival: Choas and Scarcity
Crypto: Gut & meaningful Connections
What is the primary barrier to entry in Web3?
What Are Some Things You Should not Do During A Bull Market Year?
