July officially marks the start of the Q3 months, and I know I said I was not going to post about crypto until September, but I have made some Q3 predictions in the past and wanted to revisit them.
Two months ago, I told someone that we were going to have a terrible second quarter, and they did not really agree; they probably thought we would finish strong, and here we are, exactly as I predicted.
I know that this person would not be as hopeful as they were anymore, especially for alt season, and this isn't because their hope is a reflection of what might happen, it's just that the more time we spend in a a depression zone, the more we believe we might never get out of it.
The longer you wait, the lower your expectations
Now, I am not talking about people's realistic views of Bitcoin and the alt market; rather, I am talking about their mental state and their perception of the market.
99% & More
For example, 90% of people already believe that alt season has ended or that there will be no alt season at all; by February, this number would have likely been around 40%, and by May, 70%.
This is because the longer the month goes on, the more people will be skeptical of the alt season. It is not a stupid thing to believe; rather, it is a very logical belief that every reasonable human being should hold at this time.
Why not? BTC pumps, alts don't; BTC dumps, alts are destroyed. So, if this happens several times in a few months, it means that alts will not only remain stagnant, but will actually be moving backwards in comparison to BTC's positive movement.
This is not an analysis post; it is simply my observation of the psychological reaction of the regular believer in the face of constant disappointment when they expect positive price actions.
Who does BTC pumps excite anyway?
Again, BTC has started the pump, and we can almost predict that it will dump in the next two or three days. We all know how alts will react to this dump; they will be destroyed again and will almost never move in the next (BTC) pump.
This pattern has been repetitive for the past three months or four and the BTC.D hasn't reduced whatsoever. Catalysts like these are what turns believers to unbelievers. The signs are always there, and you can not ignore them.
Everyone has the right to feel that way. No can actually guilt trip anyone at this moment for being an unbeliever. I mean, we can not see clear signals of current events and not give in to the fear that comes with them.
However, we're in the third quarter and it's always a decent one for crypto. However, it may still prefer to remain drab, which I doubt. At the moment, almost everyone is not expecting anything else, which relieves the pressure.
However, we must recognize that a lack of expectations can stem from a place of disappointment. When people are disappointed, they move on. It may take some time, but they will eventually heal. I believe we are in a stage of the market where people are simply looking to heal and move on. Consider 2017.
Something bad (really) might play out
The market did not really peak until December. Now, if this cycle decides to mirror 2017, I am sure that most people, 99% of people, would have moved on, possibly sold all of their stash, perhaps trying to catch the BTC pump, you know, trying to make up for their losses, and then the market finally pumps, leaving them with nothing to profit from.
I am not speculating that this cycle will be similar to 2017, but rather that 99% of people may have cut their losses and then the market will pump, leaving them waiting for another four years, extending the wait for life-changing money. If you are not in the game, you will not know.
It is difficult because of situations and reasons like this. Welcome to Q3, folks. If you are looking for predictions, you will not get them. This post is a reflection of the overall state of the market from my perspective, and I hope you learned something.
Interested in some more of my posts
Why Is the grind getting harder?
Monopoly Is the Death of Civilization
Survival: Choas and Scarcity
Crypto: Gut & meaningful Connections
What is the primary barrier to entry in Web3?
What Are Some Things You Should not Do During A Bull Market Year?
