Watching football matches in public bars with other guys drinking and watching has shown me so much about human nature, especially intuition.
For example, last Tuesday Real Madrid had a Champions League match against Athletico Madrid, and Real scored in the first few minutes of the match.
Immediately that happened one guy screamed and said this is what he's been saying, that Real Madrid is always very good at Champions League matches, that if this was a Spanish League match, it would most likely be a draw but now it's a Champions League match Real would destroy Athletico and that we'll see Madrid would score up to 5 goals.
The match ended 2-1. Even though it was a Real Madrid victory, it didn't go how that guy thought it would, that guy thought Real would score a lot of goals and beat Athletico convincingly.
Why did he think so? Because Real scored an early goal. A team dominating and scoring an early goal always gives you the feeling that this is just the beginning, a lot more goals are on the way. But of course your feelings doesn't mean anything most times.
This is how intuition works: it predicts an outcome based on the facts it has on ground. A team dominating and scoring in the first few minutes is truly a good sign that the team would score more and destroy their opponents, so intuition tells you that that would happen.
The fact that the next few minutes can be different and that the losers can change and play differently usually doesn't cross intuition's mind.
Another example, your money is missing and you're asking a suspect about it, the suspect can't really look you in the eyes, the suspect stammers and doesn't explain himself well. Signs like this would make intuition say this guy is the thief!.
The fact that this guy might just be an anxious guy, or that this guy is weighed down by the fact that he really looks like a suspect and that he's in trouble, these facts would be ignored by intuition most often than not.
Third example, say you talk to your friend and after the talk you feel like your friend is not happy, that something is bothering your friend. You talk to them again and they admit that something is bothering them, what would you say?
You'd say my intuition was right! I knew it, I felt something was wrong. But you really shouldn't look at it like your intuition was anything special here, what simply happened that the tone of voice, expressions, etc of your friend sounded like what it would sound like when they're sad.
They may have tried to hide it but failed at some points and the sad tone/expression was clear. Your intuition was nothing special, it simply saw the signs. If your friend was naturally talented and then trained as a professional actor, do you think your intuition would have detected anything? Definitely not!
The intuition is good for reading signs but almost everytime that the signs turn out to be false/wrong the intuition would be wrong too. So there's nothing special about your intuition.
People should only talk about the intuition as a guy who is great at reading the signs, but instead people like to talk about it like it is somewhat spiritually powerful and extraordinary.
People talk about all the times their intuition got it right but hardly, if not never, about the times their intuition got it wrong.
The End
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