Is someone still worried we won't have an altcoin season this bull market? Well, I don't want to be misunderstood—by no means do I see an altcoin season yet, because most altcoins are still heavily underperforming Bitcoin.
Well, BTC.D is holding above 61%, which is definitely not altcoin season territory, and nowhere near the 71% peak it hit back in 2021. Will it climb that high this cycle? I doubt it...The problem with Crypto Twitter is that it’s always expecting every cycle to repeat the previous one(s) to a T. That’s not how it works, because the world is constantly changing, and different factors keep driving shit up or down.
ETH and DOGE are usually seen as pack leaders when it comes to altcoins gaining dominance over BTC. Over the past few weeks, ETH has shown insane strength in that regard, and DOGE seems to have woken up recently too.
So, when you see BTC down for the week while ETH and DOGE are up 20% to 30%, something might be brewing. We probably won’t see BTC hit 71% dominance this cycle, but I doubt it’ll drop to 42% either. Bitcoin’s at a whole different level of mass adoption compared to altcoins.
That doesn’t mean alts won’t perform, just probably not as wildly as we’re used to. I still believe in the four-year cycles and patterns repeating because human psychology never changes.
Back in early 2020, no one was buying crypto because the world shut down over a fake virus pandemic. When things started picking up, most thought it was a sucker’s rally. The bears’ narrative was, “Who’s gonna have money to buy?”—blind to what was coming.
Once things heated up properly, plebs started buying, and as usual, retail made the blow-off top possible. I got caught up too, buying tops in 2021. I grabbed ATOM near its peak and LEO at $0.4 per coin.
Now, I’ve made most of my purchases near the ATL (all-time lows), and I’m waiting to cash out. I’m not banking on 10X or more for my investments, but something tells me the rest of the year will offer some solid exit opportunities.
Psychology never changes, and my take is that sooner rather than later, the supercycle narrative will be resurrected with all the ETF buys and Saylor accumulating like a madman. It’s just another bubble brewing, if you ask me, and I can’t wait to dump the shit out of my holdings.
For now, though, it’s still HODL time...Patterns repeat because psychology never fades. Otherwise, we wouldn’t see the world falling for the same shit every four years with elections, crises, and whatever else. We’ll have to see how this altcoin season unfolds, but looking at ETH lately, I see a pattern, and my gut tells me this bull market ain’t done yet.
What do you think?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian