Bitcoin's next block reward halving is a little over a month away, what should we expect?
If it is anything like the last couple, we should expect some major fireworks!
However, these major fireworks don't usually happen until several months post halving.
Lets take a look at the past couple halvings for some guidance...
(Source: https://twitter.com/search?q=bitcoin&src=typed_query)
Halvings by the numbers...
Past performance does not necessarily predict future results...
First Halving:
- November 2012
Bitcoin saw a 13,000% price increase. With a low of around $2 and a high of over $270 dollars. The high was roughly a year post halving.
Second Halving:
- July 2016
Bitcoin saw a 12,000% price increase. With a low around $164 and a high of around $20,000. The high was roughly 17 months post halving.
Third halving:
- May 2020
If Bitcoin were to increase another 12,000-13,000%, we would be looking at a price of around $400k per BTC.
But what if it does?
I'm not expecting things to go up nearly as much this time around...
I think the law of large numbers will start to impact things as we move forward, which means I don't think we will see anything close to $400k within the next 18 months.
Either way though, I do think we will be seeing some major fireworks before the end of next year.
Past patterns point to bitcoin topping out sometime between May and December of 2021 at a price many multiples of its current price.
And that $100k number just sounds awfully round to me! :)
Stay informed my friends.
-Doc