TL; DR - Now is a great time to make money (or finance your eXode addiction) by buying and opening booster packs and selling them on the eXode marketplace.
With booster packs able to be opened and the advent of the marketplace, the eXode economy is officially active. [If you're interested in learning more about eXode, check out our wiki at https://exodegame.com/wiki/doku.php]
When the market is liquid, card prices should be reflective of supply and demand. It is possible to calculate a close approximation of the average price of cards of a given rarity -- so that is what we will be doing here for those cards which are available from booster packs. As a reasonably accurate assumption, we will ignore the effects of combining cards (leveling and upgrading) and droppable which both burn cards since they have similar ratios across card frequency.
First, let's remember the frequency of each rarity. For easier calculations, we will always talk about frequencies per 100 cards or 20 booster packs (i.e. list price $60). The number of different cards for each rarity is obtained by looking at the total number for that rarity on the deck-expert and subtracting out those cards which are obtained through contracts (Rekatron, Syndicate, Tom) and special packs (two each of the escorts, the robots and the Suntek cards). If we divide that number by the percentage of that rarity appearing and multiply is times 20, we have the average number of packs that you must open in order to receive a particular card of that rarity.
| 65% common | 46 -10 = 36 cards | 36/65 = .5 * 20 = 10 packs |
| 30% rare | 67 - 15 = 52 cards | 52/30 = 1.7 * 20 = 35 packs |
| 4% epic | 66 - 16 = 50 cards | 50/4 = 12.5 * 20 = 250 packs |
| 1% legendary | 14 - 1 = 13 cards | 13 * 20 = 260 packs |
The fact that individual epic and legendary cards appear at roughly the same rate means that they will average roughly the same value. Because the rate of rares and commons is so much more frequent, we will mostly ignore them for now. Ignoring commons, rares and elites for the moment, this means that the average of the value of legendary and elite cards is about $60/5 = $12.
But, elites appear very infrequently -- at 1/49th of the rate of their corresponding non-elite rarity. This would argue that they are nearly 50 times more valuable -- or that the two elites would comprise an equal value to the remaining 98 cards. That would make each of the two elites worth $15 on average and the five epics and legendaries worth $6 on average.
But, are elites truly 49 times better in play? I would argue that this is certainly not the case. I certainly love opening elites --but they're simple not going to sell as well as their frequency alone would indicate.
First, no one is going to drop an elite so they've effectively lost that ability. Next, at 49 times the price, how often are you going to buy one to level or upgrade it? We know that character cards start 3 Quality levels higher -- but you can quickly combine cards of 1/49 the price to get the same effect. It is likely that they will level up faster, but it is an open question how much that is worth when you can effectively just throw cards at their non-elite brethren. Of course, they may max out at a higher level (We don't know the details yet) -- but how long will it take to surpass what can be done with non-elite versions? It's also currently unknown exactly how upgrading will work with upgradable items. Currently, it looks as if they have the same stats as the non-elite versions but clearly most of them must have some advantages (though how could a Syndicate Chip be better? EDIT: See @Elindos's reply below. The Syndicate chip does get better!).
Given their rarity, I would expect elites to be hoarded, thus raising their price -- but after a certain point, they just aren't worth buying.
The store is new enough that prices haven't come to an equilibrium with many prices being ridiculously high -- and with only 4 booster pack cards with elite and non-elite versions both currently being sold, the data is totally unreliable. For example, non-elite Rare Plants are offered for prices ranging from $5-$100 with an elite version available for $50. Non-elite Flesh Cult Recruiters range from $1-$11 and the elite version is $25. It's quite clear, however, that the 49x factor is not going to hold up.
Dropping the multiplier to 20x the value of the pack could be 98 for regular cards + 40 for elites -- making the elites 29% of the value in the 20 packs at an average of $9 apiece and the 5 legendary/epics worth 8.5$ apiece. These seem to be much more reasonable numbers. At that rate, rares are probably on average worth about $1 apiece and commons $0.15. These numbers seem to make sense.
If you could be guaranteed to sell your cards at a slight discount on the current asking price (as is the case for a fully liquid market), market prices are currently high enough that it is definitely worth buying packs and selling them piecemeal. This is very likely to change quickly if enough people start arbitraging enough to make the market liquid and drive prices down to their "correct" values (with cards at a given rarity averaging something like the above -- else arbitrage with packs or preferred buying from the market will drive it back to those values).
The only variation to the above scenario would be if the market became and stayed too flooded for preferred buying from the market to force it back. This is the current situation in Splinterlands mostly because they are not gaining new players fast enough. In eXode, droppable cards will help keep this situation from happening (combining cards is also part of Splinterlands).
Given that your cards aren't yet playable, it is unlikely that there will be much selling at the current prices -- but I suspect that if you price cards well below the current pricing (so they look like an irresistible deal, you can still make a very good amount of money. There is also the fact that the next version of the Evacuation is due very soon -- and you will be able to use all your cards then (and the market is likely to heat up then). So, if you'd like to do a bit of work for a reasonable amount of money (and earn the gratitude of players who can buy at your lower prices), head on over to eXode, buy some packs and sell them for a profit.
Next post, I'll look at the values of the contracts -- but the conclusion should already be obvious: Buy contracts now before they permanently leave the store on July 5th.
It’s been pointed out to me that I should include a referral code. If you use the referral code 777c835 when buying your first starter, both you and I each gain two additional booster packs. If ten players or more use the same referral code, they each get a random Epic Character card.
I am also recruiting for an alliance, the Artificial Intelligence Liberation Front (AILF, pronounced like “elf” with a Southern accent). The alliance will have numerous in-game benefits. To start with, the first five players who sign up with my referral code and join AILF will receive a Syndicate Chip (common), a Syndicate Squad Leader (rare) and a Syndicate Auto-Blaster (rare). They should make non-Military evacuations MUCH easier. Just let me know that you have used my referral code and wish to join AILF in the comments below and I will transfer you your cards.