In World Population Prospects 2022 the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) projects that the global population will reach 10.4 billion by the end of this century. That’s 800 million fewer than the 2017 edition projected.
The UNPD has removed the equivalent of two United States of Americas from its projections. Once they remove a couple more Americas, they'll be closer to the facts on the ground.
Many demographers believe the latest UN projection is still too high. The latest UN revision at least acknowledges the conflicting projections, citing [data](https://web.archive.org/web/20220727202719/https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20%2930677-2/fulltext) from the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The IHME projects a global population of no more than 8.8 billion by the end of the century.
The difference lies in the assumptions on the future level of fertility. So whose fertility assumptions are correct? All sides agree that about two-thirds of the global population lives in societies whose fertility rate is at or replacement rate.
Canada’s fertility rate is 1.4. China’s is 1.15 and its population is in decline, years ahead of expectations. China is about to become Japan, which last year lost more than 640,000 people and has experienced three decades of economic stagnation.
Next year, India will become the world’s most populous country. But its fertility rate has dipped to 2.0, also below replacement rate. Apart from Sub-Saharan Africa, very few places on earth have fertility rates that are above the replacement level. All demographers agree that about two-thirds of the global population lives in societies whose fertility rate is at or below 2.1 children per woman. Apart from Sub-Saharan Africa, very few places on earth have fertility rates that are above the replacement level.
The UNPD predicts that more than half of all population growth over the next three decades will be concentrated in eight countries: The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
Although the UNPD has started to use more up-to-date data, it relies heavily on census and other statistical information from member countries. The on-the-ground analysis often paints a truer picture. Let's look at the Philippines for example.
Most estimates, including the UN projection, have the fertility rate at around 2.5. But Juan Perez, the executive director of the Philippines’ Commission on Population and Development, told local media in May that the fertility rate had fallen to 1.8 since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Will the Philippines be a major driver of population growth in the years ahead? Not according to the latest data. Developing countries are rapidly urbanizing. When women move from the countryside to the city, they are more likely to find paid work and receive education. Religious authority and clan pressures weaken. As a result, they invariably choose to have fewer babies.
The speed of the shift is still subject to debate and there are a lot of us who believe the UN still isn’t getting it right.