Going through crypto Twitter, it seems almost everyone are rest assured that the bear market is over and are enthusiastic about the next move to $30k. If you're new to this space, it might just be a relaxing day. However, if you've been here for at least one BTC cycle, you'll understand that the market always take everyone by surprise. In this post, I'll simply point out my fears and also talk about what excites me. Only sticking to the facts in the charts, no moonboy syndrome here😆. Before I proceed, there's a disclaimer I need to declaim. This is not a financial advise. Please do your own research.
I'll try to make it simple, short and concise. Ain't nobody got time for lengthy talks. I don't wanna bore you. There are few simple charts that are very important and I'd love to explain a little.
First is the 200 days weekly Moving Average (200MA)- the yellow line. It's clear that we're testing this level for the second time since July 2022 where we broke above but couldn't keep up. We fell below it a month later and have stayed below for over 5months. Why's this level critical? 🤔.
This is the first time in Bitcoin's history that we'd be printing multiple candles for months below this moving average. Even during the Covid crash in 2020, we only whicked through and didn't close below. It was our beautiful support in 2015's bear market🙂. However this time is different. We're below it for months now, serving as our resistance. In my honest opinion, the only way we can reach $30k is to break through and flip it to our support. This will mean we need to form a stable plateau at around $25.6k for at least 3weeks. The next leg up will be straight to $30k cus there's no resistance level after that.
Stochastic RSI which is our momentum is showing a little bit of strength trying to cross. When the blue line is up, then our pump momentum increases. For now, we just need to watch this like a hawk and hope it crosses before the weekly close today 🙂
On the monthly, we're still below the 24 level i.e we need both blue and red to be above this level to confirm the start of a bull run. So we're going to come back at this by March 1st🙂.
In conclusion... Any rejection from the 200MA might send us back to below $20k and we'll be down for a month or two. If we break through and flip it to our support, it's bye bye bear 🐻 market💐. For now, we're still good.
Do have a terrific week ahead. See you next time