At the start of the year, I made an estimate on what our curation rewards would look like this month - how'd I do?
source
One could not have foreseen the changes that have taken place this year with regards to the rewards structure. There has been a lot of discussion on the subject, and whilst not everyone agrees, I think the changes made in the most recent hard fork have been for the better.
Prior to the fork, larger investors sought to 'protect their stake' by producing sub-standard content to apply their own vote, and this practice became the norm for over a year. With the introduction of the EIP, 'free' downvotes allowed 'good' stakeholders to reduce the rewards on this content and at the same time, build their stake by curating the content of others.
The change from 25% to 50% for curation rewards has been a positive in my opinion, and not just because it has saved my predictions from being totally off!
I recently received a message from @remind-me on this post written 11 months ago, where you can find a number of charts predicting the curation rewards of those that asked (and I didn't miss!).
Thanks to the dev for this one - more info here
The post discussed using previous curation rewards and a couple of chart features in excel to predict rewards for the remainder of the year. This was my prediction chart 11 months ago:
And the actual chart using today's STEEM per MVESTS conversion of 508.297:
By hook or crook, the prediction for my account is about 25 SP out (less than 10%) for December 2019!
It was mentioned at the time of the original post that the charts came with a good deal of speculation and this was corrected in the comments by someone who stated they were 'pure speculation'.
Were it not for the EIP and the fact that I've bought around 5000 STEEM/SP in the past couple of months, the speculative chart would be way off. Still, let's ignore these minor details completely and look at a couple more charts produced 11 months ago:
Predicted: 475 SP
Actual: 450 SP
Predicted: 440 SP
Actual: 580 SP
Predicted: 22.5 SP
Actual: 22.36 SP!
To be fair, I've had to cherry pick some of the more accurate predictions above, and there were some didn't go quite so well:
Predicted: 100 SP
Actual: 503 SP
Not that @smasssh will be complaining too much I guess!
Well that was a fun exercise, although I don't think I'll be doing the same next year - too many variables here on Steem, don't you just love it?
Cheers
Asher
This second post was brought to you by someone who did have plans for NYE but has been in bed with the flu for the past few days. Have a good one!