Not too long ago, various technical analysts and investors, including Alessio Rastani, whom I hold in high regard, and Garreth Soloway, took to social media, stating that, "unfortunately, the bull market in traditional markets is over." This declaration coincided with the SPX precariously holding at $4,200, seemingly teetering on the edge of a precipice.
Fast forward, and we now witness NASDAQ and Dow Jones shattering all-time highs. If memory serves me right, the SPX recently joined the ranks. Consequently, the bear market predicted by these analysts has proven to be not just inaccurate but entirely off the mark.
Traditional markets appear poised for further gains. Despite the pervasive fears and rumors of an impending recession, there remains a strong appetite for market investments. This appetite is anticipated to spill over into the realm of crypto markets. Some altcoins have already experienced staggering price appreciation, reaching thousands of percentages from their bear market lows, while BTC continues to perform exceptionally well.
Leaked spot ETF commercials circulating on Twitter suggest an imminent approval for a Bitcoin spot ETF, a development that could "worsen" the bull market. As 2023 draws to a close, the year 2024 promises two significant catalysts that will propel BTC and the overall crypto market to new all-time highs — that's a certainty.
While I initially brought up traditional markets, they have a track record of leading the crypto market during bullish phases. However, as the fervor in SPX, NASDAQ, and other markets begins to wane, crypto is poised to take center stage. Presently, we find ourselves in the nascent stages of the Bitcoin bull market.
It's crucial to recognize that a coin's meteoric 10,000% surge in a few months from its bear market low doesn't guarantee sustained growth until the end of the bull market. Capital will inevitably be reallocated, with traders and investors cashing in profits and diverting them into projects yet to experience a pump. As a friendly reminder, don't overlook the importance of taking profits during this bull market. Doing so will shield you from the perils of becoming destitute and desperate in the subsequent bear market.
The onset of a bull market is elusive — no specific date or alarm signals the shift from bear to bull. Yet, to me, the current landscape undeniably screams bull market. The crucial questions to ponder are how long this surge will endure and when it will eventually subside. Addressing these queries is imperative to avoid being caught holding the bag when the bear market inevitably arrives.
Historical data indicates that Bitcoin typically peaks approximately one and a half years post-halving, and with the halving just four months away, anticipation looms. Altcoins tend to follow suit, peaking after Bitcoin, though exceptions like DOGE have historically topped the charts ahead of BTC in previous bull markets.
Within the crypto community on Twitter, there's a contention that BTC and the crypto market might peak earlier in this cycle. Two major catalysts — the halving and ETF approvals in the US — are cited, pinpointing the potential peak around the end of 2024. Others argue for a historical repetition, speculating that the market will only experience extreme euphoria around 2025.
Having been swayed by crypto gurus in the 2018-2020 bear market, I once believed the bullish season wouldn't extend beyond 2021. The subsequent reality shattered my assumptions. Learning from this, and scarred by the LUNA saga, I won't hinge my strategy on time or price predictions this time around. Instead, I'll closely monitor market sentiment and adhere to my dollar-cost averaging plan for exiting the market.
Personally, I opine that the bull market will conclude when BTC saturates the news, dubious coins fetch exorbitant valuations akin to the NFT craze in the past cycle, and the market is flooded with inexperienced buyers. The exact timeline, whether one or two years from now, eludes my predictive abilities.
What I do know is that the market sentiment serves as a reliable indicator of an impending end to the bull market. This guides my approach in navigating this cycle. How about you? When do you believe the crypto bull market will reach its conclusion?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian