I don't even need to look at the market to know BTC is at $40,000. This is a tweet of mine from yesterday. It's close to 11:00 AM in her,e as I am writing this post and BTC is... you guessed it, around $40k again. Why so stable?
I literally have no clue... I guess it's just supply and demand metrics that go over my poor understanding. It's not one day that goes by without being in touch with what happens in crypto as an industry and its markets as well and I've been thinking lately...
Is the crypto market still respecting these four years cycles?
We don't know that for sure so far because there's little time passed since the last ATH for BTC. November 10, 2021 marked the date for when Bitcoin has peaked at a bit over $69,000. Most of us believed that it would go higher for that year, but it seems there wasn't enough fuel for an over $100k BTC.
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If we look back in history, though, it takes Bitcoin about two years to bottom out after a cycle peak, but can we call $69,000 as the cycle peak for its third halving triggered bull market cycle? If that would be the case than BTC shall complete its bottoming process, one that will probably involve mini bull and bear markets, by March, or so, 2024.
There are some missing puzzles from the four years cycle pattern that are not fully aligned this time. First of all, we didn't had yet an over 80% correction for BTC as it happened in 2018, just three months after the peak and most of the alts are still flying high.
Than, if we look at the chart we will see that in 2017, after the bull market peaked, BTC started to form lower highs and lower lows, meanwhile now, or lets say for the past half a year or so it is actually painting higher highs and higher lows.
These metrics point to the fact that the current bull market might not be over yet and that the price of Bitcoin could still be in play for a blow off top. There's this super cycle theory that is promoted among crypto heads for a while and I lean towards it.
I don't want to make this post a super cycle bias thesis, but for the moment I don't see the same behavior playing out for BTC as it did back in 2017-2018. No blow off top, no lower lows and lower highs, alts "aren't falling down to earth", BTC dominance is pretty much the same as during the topping out...
Moreover we also have some "external factors", political and economical ones that don't allow Bitcoin to hit rock bottom. Some peeps around the world are using it as a hedge against inflation, although so far it hasn't proved to be such a good hedge, we have funds like MicroStrategy and projects like Terra who are accumulating BTC constantly and countries that are pointing towards making it legal tender.
I can not clearly say that Bitcoin and the whole crypto markets have "evaded" the four years cycles, but neither do we have any confirmation that we're on the same repeating pattern. The way I see it we're "walking on different waters" this time. We're not yet landed on any moon, but quite far from earth, I'd say.
What do you think?
Thanks for attention,
Adrian