Bitcoin has pretty much nailed a new ATH, one that seems to be holding relatively well at well above $69,500, and all of that happened without spot ETFs buying any Bitcoin. It's the weekend, and those companies are on pause with their Bitcoin buying spree. Imagine the FOMO they will get on Monday not knowing where the next stop is.
After entering price discovery, we don't know how high Bitcoin will go and how long it will take until it faces a correction (which will occur for sure). We also don't know the peak for this cycle. Some say it will be around $115,000, while others are pointing towards $300,000. Cathie Woods of ARK Investments is once again at it with exaggerated price targets for this cycle.
She sees BTC at around $1 million in three years; I see it being in a bear market (don't know the "shallowness of it) in three years. There is this guy on Twitter with the name of TechDev, and he claims that it is not the halving that caused the Bitcoin cycles so far, but the liquidity cycle, which is 3.5 years long. According to his metrics, the top for BTC will be in Q1 of 2025.
I wouldn't mind that, to be honest... I have been at a "deficit" for over two years, and cashing in some juicy profits would literally change my life. If by the end of the bull market, I can manage to buy myself a house too, then I'm more than happy... Anyway...
As in every bull cycle for Bitcoin, we see similar, if not the same, narratives afloat regarding Bitcoin's future. Recently, Larry Fink gave an interview to FOX Business where he said that Bitcoin is digital gold and somehow hinted at the end of fiat and the beginning of a new financial era.
I highly disagree on this one, and here's why... Larry Fink has an agenda for Bitcoin; he has not become a Bitcoin bull all of a sudden like Michael Saylor did. Fink needs to use his persuasive power as the CEO of the largest investment fund in the world to convince the boomers and pension funds to buy Bitcoin through his spot ETF so that he can profit from the fees.
He is taking these fees in dirty cash, not sats. If he were so convinced about Bitcoin, he would become a maxi like Saylor, but he's not. The man is running a big business, and there's money to be made from Bitcoin; hence, he has to advertise Bitcoin. These guys don't care about you or me; they would take our houses and leave us homeless if they could profit from such a move.
They only care about money, power, and control over as many assets as possible, so why would anyone trust Larry Fink? For the price of Bitcoin, it's good what Larry is doing, but be aware of the narratives that will lead many investors to enter the next bear market with their bags full.
Over time, Bitcoin will probably become more valuable than gold and will probably reach $1 million per coin or more, but it will do that over a span of cycles. It's not going to be a one-time shot. It is true that gold went straight up for eight years after the spot ETF approval, but it only managed to do a 300% increase from the price point it left the station in those eight years.
Oh, I almost forgot, Larry Fink's business was built on cash and it is still highly dependent on cash, do you think he really believes the end of cash is that close?
Bitcoin can do that easily in less than a year; thus, we will not need it to plateau only after eight years. Many are falling for the likes of Fink and all sorts of social media influencers and will not sell in this bull market, either entering the next bear market broke and frustrated. I am doing the opposite. What about you?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian