Yesterday @trumpman had a short post in regards of where the crypto markets could be on the Wall Street Cheat Sheet and from what I read in the comments section most of the folks sharing their take were saying that we are somewhere between optimism and euphoria.
My personal expert opinion is that we are somewhere close to optimism, we've gone past the hope phase and I'd say that the $20,000 mark was where we could have positioned ourselves in the hope wagon. We were wishing for BTC to get to $20,000 and above, but no one was sure about that.
Now that it has claimed around 3x from the past bull market cycle peak there's no room left for hope. That's eaten alive by Michael Saylor, Elon Musk and Dogecoin and already pooped. $20,000 is a given and most of the ones that had their bags under water from three years ago not knowing when to take profits back then are now in profit.
There's optimism on the market as many are waiting for BTC to fly above $100,000, for banks to announce one after the other their conversion under the Bitcoin religion and for pure madness to be the middle name of this market. We haven't had that yet.
Bitcoin has been on a steady growth, same as it did back in 2016-2017 after the halving. It didn't care about covid, economical uncertainty, whether DOGE will get to $1 or not, it just kept on climbing and claiming ATH after ATH. Kind of similar with what it has done back in 2017 till like summer or so.
It's been a steady growth, same as HIVE is experiencing for a while now. Nothing spectacular. I don't see BTC at $60,000 and over $1T in market cap as something spectacular in the grand scheme of things. That's why I think we're somewhere close, if not entered already the optimism phase. The vibe that I'm getting from the market and its participants is that there's more room for the upside.
And that's entirely true. If you have a look at stats and graphs, you'll see that the total market capitalization for altcoins has just got past its previous ATH, tested it and reclaimed that level as support, and now scoring ATH after ATH. Same as quite a few altcoins like ADA, BAT and others are doing lately.
Worth noticing also that ETH for example which is the lion king of alts is just three hundred bucks above its previous ATH. Do you think it will peak at just $2,000-$3,000? I don't, and if it does that I'm out of this market and this types of assets for good. The exponential growth is failed on us and this bubble was really just another tulip. One thing that made the crypto market special and distinct from many others was its exponential growth.
When lookin at past cycles you'll notice that every next one has simply eclipsed the previous one. 2013 peak made BTC price from 2011 look like a dot, 2017 made the 2013 a dot and so on. Bitcoin at $56,000 doesn't make the $20,000 valuation look like a dot AND THAT HAS TO BECOME A DOT TOO. I'd say that if we were to compare our position in this cycle with the previous one we're something like where we were back in May 2017.
We're not early stages anymore, that's clear. Some of the altcoins have already took off, BTC is no longer a bargain by all means, but you know what's funny? The big players like this types of assets more when they're priced and spicy rather than at bargain levels. Just read a tweet today, I guess from Scaramucci, saying that he likes BTC more at $40,000 than he liked it at $400.
Some might be lying p social media while they dump on the market and seeing that retail is now buying more BTC than financial institutions are, it could be a wake up sign that we're not going to keep this going at this magnitude forever. At some point the volcano will blow and there will be a lot of smoke. We'll get there in less than a year imo. Probably six months or so.
There's still room for growth. Yes, probably BTC will correct even more and its domination on the market will fall to as low as 40% or even under, leaving room for alts to get their deserved hype. Some haven't even gotten to their previous ATHs and most will. I clearly remember how the hype and FOMO feels, I've been there back in 2017... We're not there, I tell you.
We haven't had proper hype yet, all we had was popcorn and a trailer of what's to hit the screens. This bull cycle won't last for years and imo won't be too different from the 2017 one, but we're still months away from euphoria phase.
Thanks for attention,
Adrian