Have you been active on Hive for the past 4 years?
We are about to begin the next bull market, it could be in a month or it could happen in a year, but the market vibes are starting to feel bullish.
I mean look at the Crypto fear and greed index:
We're up 80% from last month. Let that sink in. A month ago people were fearful (46), not fearful as hell because it's been a year since the UST and FTX collapses, but 46 is still bearish. Fast forward 30 days, a mistake from cointelegraph, a declaration from Larry Fink, a socialFi trend and death, and suddenly we are at an index of 71.
People are greedy now.
Normies will start flocking back
But they haven't been around for a full cycle, maybe they haven't even been in the space before.
I can see it happening already on X. Crypto and Money spaces are packed now. Activity is skyrocketing and a ton of old accounts being undusted.
It's normal. Once the market shows signs of activity, all the grinders and cash grabbers decide to come back. It's human nature, we can't help but to get attracted to the next shiny thing, even if we forgot it existed for a few years.
But the community remembers, and the market doesn't forgive.
The space has changed a lot in four years.
While we've been learning about DeFi, NFTs, SocialFi, new protocols, Lightning network, non-custodial and trustless foundations, memecoins, zero-knowledge, Layer zeros, and building our brand, these guys were focusing in other stuff.
Because you have been learning, right?
Are you really ready for this next bull market or are you going to end up riding the wave to zero again?
Have you learned to set goals, to DCA down, and to take profits?
Do you know now how to assess liquidity, read a trend, keep track of whale wallets, and feel the market?
Because if you haven't, then what the hell have you been doing these past four years apart from blogging and stacking Hive?
The whole point of being on Hive is owning your digital identity and unshackle from web2, but what are you putting in time and effort in the most decentralized blockchain which happens to have a social ecosystem on top of it, if you are not going to go through the doors that being on this space opens for you?
There are plenty of Hivers who share their crypto, market and daily knowledge on a daily basis, it's just up to you to also become a content consumer, not only a content creator.
The cycle thesis
Crypto is a zero sum game. In order for you to make money, someone else has to lose it. The more capital enters the space, the more we grow in general terms. If money outflows from the ecosystem, we shrink in market cap.
This is a player vs player game.
You are using your experience, knowledge and gut feeling to make money. If the overall market is more prepared than you, you will end up losing money. This is an oversimplification of things, but it's true.
The normie investor who heard about Bitcoin in 2018, will hear again about crypto once Blackrock and company begin marketing BTC far and wide.
Normies and rookies are exit liquidity. Sounds harsh but it is the truth.
Buy High, sell Low, not the other way around
Normal people heard about BTC in 2017-2018 because we were in plain bull market and the bonanza was too hard to ignore, and yet they did or if they actually went in, they went in uninitiated and not hard enough.
The market crashed and they got confirmation bias afterwards, without understanding that Crypto moves in cycles - I was one of them by the way, I bought 50k Hive at 90c back in mid-18.
We're a psychologically driven species. After the crash, most people who didn't go in thought that they were right for not diving in, and they ignore crypto for four years.
These people haven't been learning. They have no idea that risk management is incredibly important, and they have zero knowledge about how volatile the market is and how much of a key factor is to not react to swings.
They will go in during the next bulls trying to make money. Their own greed mixed with their own inexperience will be their doom.
- They will get sucked in to dumb narratives.
- They will believe number will up forever, and will hold all the way back to the cycle lows.
But it's a cycle.
You and me both understand this, right?
Are you going to fall for previous - and new - market traps and become exit liquidity or hold back to lows, or are you going to take profits?
Respect the cycle
I know the statements above are highly degen-like and make me sound like a full time capitalist that is here just for the money.
I'm not, if you've been on Hive for more than a month, odds are you've heard of me. And if you've clicked on my profile you'd know I've been here for 6.5 years and I'm not fucking leaving.
But I'm not the same person I was 6 years ago.
I've learnt. I'm not the rookie investor who became exit liquidity twice with life changing money - yep, twice.
I am aware of plenty of things I wasn't six, four, and two years ago.
One thing is certain: I am not going to make the same mistakes I've made over the past six years, and I definitely plan on having retirement money after this bull market.
I'll keep building, but I will do so without any rush, pressure or anxiety.
What about you?