So you thought we were in an altcoin bull run, right? I mean the shitcoin over at Soiana are making new millionaires and despite the $hive token not moving much, some AI and RWA tokens have been exploding, and since some shitfluencers over on X are saying that the altcoin bulls have started, you decided to believe them.
How cute. Spoiler alert: We’re not even close. If you're feeling lost and alone in this cycle, join the club. Just today during the WenSoon show I mentioned that my portfolio has officially halved since the pre-BTC halving ATHs. It really hurts, but this is a game of patience and knowledge.
I'm at peace, so let me share with you why you should be at peace as well.
You’d think with Bitcoin nearing all-time highs, meme coins exploding, and celebrities jumping back on the crypto hype train, we'd be euphoric. But no. The reality is much grimmer if you scratch beneath the surface. Most retail investors don't hold large amounts of Bitcoin – they’re knee-deep in altcoins, at least I know I am, and every single person I know of is overly and alarmingly allocated to altcoins. It just makes sense, there's no 10x on BTC or ETH and not even in SOL or any of the other top30 coins.
And the fact that Altcoins are flopping harder than a fish out of water right now is just pure pain. I'm getting a bit tired of this chop chop stage of the altcoin cycle, but as I said, I'm comfy and at peace.
Let’s break it down:
OTHERS/BTC is lower than it was in October 2023. OTHERS refers to the total crypto market cap excluding the top 10 coins. This visual says it all:
Since the FTX collapse, only 8 coins our of the top have broken their previous all-time highs versus Bitcoin.
Asset selection is crucial. Last bull run, you could throw darts at a board and make money. This time? Not so much. You’re being punished for betting on the wrong sectors (L2, gaming, etc.) and rewarded for others (memes, AI, RWA). Crypto is an attention economy. Money flows where the hype goes. So, even if you find the next big tech, no one cares if there's no compelling reason to buy.
ATH dilution: With thousands of new launches daily, it’s no wonder many altcoins are underperforming. New tokens are flooding the market faster than new liquidity. Focus on <$1 billion FDV alts with strong products and narratives. The "older" coins with most of their supply released could make a comeback. Also, keep an eye on alts leading and responding to pumps in hot sectors.
Bitcoin leads the charge: This bull run has been driven by Bitcoin, specifically the spot ETF narrative. No surprise alts are lagging. For a true alt season, we need additional catalysts – sector-driven or macro-driven.
Despite the gloom, savvy traders are still making bank by spotting rotations and positioning well. Some frens, and myself btw, have had nice runs even in these mildly bullish conditions (CNDL, RIO, BANANA).
It’s a hustle, but it pays off if you play your cards right.
Here’s some more eye candy:
Crypto YouTube views are lagging Bitcoin price. In 2021, Bitcoin at $70k drew 4 million views a day. In 2024, same price, only 800k views a day. Retail isn't interested yet. Why? Altcoin underperformance.
Altcoins (TOTAL3) are still 70% away from their previous highs compared to BTC. Bitcoin is near its all-time high, but alts are dragging their feet.
Since BTC's leg up from $27k in October, alts haven’t had a sustained rally.
- Q4 2023: Everything off cycle lows, no fear of the cycle ending, many multiples achieved across alts.
- Q1 2024: Some charts reset, wild moves on select alts. Dispersion starts – pick the right coin, you win. Pick wrong, not so much.
- Q2 2024: Large deleveraging to start the quarter. BTC ranges while alts trend down.
Just a few compounders throughout the cycle, increasing difficulty without external capital, and plenty of mental anguish. Setting up for a potential interim cycle bottom in June and a better H2 ahead (hopefully).
As a side note, I bought most of my bull run portfolio at the end of Q4, I 3x'd it by the halving, and it's been chopping hard as fuck ever since to a point where it's now half of it's ATH.
So why the hell are alts underperforming?
Simple. It’s a Bitcoin-led cycle driven by the spot ETF narrative. While Bitcoin thrives, most alts lag unless they’re in the hot sectors like memes, AI, or RWA.
And what about all those new tokens? Nearly 1 million new crypto tokens were created in May alone. That’s double the total ever created on Ethereum from 2015-2023. Insane, right? And Solana’s numbers are even crazier but I won't delve into that because 99.99% of tokens in Solana are scams, rugs, honey pots or simple pnd schemes from 95% of crypto influencers on X
Then there’s the flood of token unlocks – about $200 million worth daily. This constant sell pressure keeps the market suppressed.
No wonder altcoins are struggling. But when will things turn around? Historically, altcoins peak 546 days post-halving. If this cycle follows the same pattern, we could see an altcoin peak in October 2025. However, considering cycle acceleration and macro factors, we might peak earlier.
For now, it’s natural for Bitcoin to lead. Altcoins usually start to outperform later in the cycle. But remember, not all alts will pump. Dilution is a major factor, and asset selection is crucial. Get in the right narratives, or be prepared to watch your portfolio languish.
So, buckle up, keep hustling, and maybe – just maybe – you’ll come out on top.
And most importantly, re-read this post if you ever feel like losing your peace.