Or why being right 10 times doesn’t mean anything.
Let's run a thought experiment. Imagine 1,000 people at a roulette wheel, each betting on either red or black. It's a European wheel with a single zero, giving you a probability of hitting red or black at 18/37. For the Lions playing along at home, that's a 48.6% chance for either color, with the house edge lurking like a shark in a kiddie pool.
If 1,000 people are betting, the odds are 52.4% that at least one person will win 10 times in a row. Yes, you read that right. Despite the slim odds for each individual, the sheer number of players makes a streak statistically probable. The calculation, for the math geeks:
𝑝=1−(1−(18/37)10)1000
However, here's the kicker: that lucky streaker isn't suddenly endowed with mystical powers to predict the 11th roll. They're just riding a wave of probability. Now, let’s translate this - admittedly simplified - analogy to the wild world of crypto.
There are thousands of traders on various platforms, each predicting whether the market will go up or down in the short term. Given the sheer volume, it's statistically likely that someone will be right 10 times in a row. Now some of these people post predictions and deems themselves crypto gurus, so if you add to that the dubious tactic of deleting wrong predictions and, voilà, instant oracle status and hundreds of thousands of followers on X trying to emulate their tactics and make it forever!
I know it's all a charade, and anyone who's been around in crypto long enough knows this as well, but the problem is the space is full rookies and n00bs.
Their first thought when seeing these streaks is that this person must be a genius, a prophet, or maybe even a time traveler. Mathematically speaking, though, it's just a matter of numbers: if enough people make enough predictions, someone will hit a winning streak.
I'm not saying good day traders don't exist. But trading on a daily chart often resembles gambling, especially when the average trader lacks access to comprehensive market data.
My point is this: it's an easy fallacy to believe that someone who has been right 10 times in a row must be more knowledgeable and is therefore bound to be right the 11th time. To evaluate if someone has a real edge, you need more than just a track record of lucky guesses.
Again, if 1,000 people bet 10 times in a row on black or red at a roulette wheel, it's more likely that someone will win 10 times in a row. This doesn't make them clairvoyant, just lucky.
For a deeper dive into how success stories often involve a lot of hidden luck, I recommend Malcolm Gladwell's book "Outliers." It explores how being in the right place at the right time can be as important as skill.
In the end, whether you’re looking at roulette wheels or crypto charts, remember: streaks happen. They’re part of the game. Just don’t mistake them for divine foresight.