RE: LeoThread 2025-04-28 15:13

Key Drivers of Busan's Population Decline

The low fertility rate and aging population are two key drivers of Busan's population decline.

Low Fertility Rate

• Fertility rate: Busan's fertility rate in 2023 was 0.66 children per woman, significantly below the national average of 0.72 and far below the 2.1 needed for population stability.
• Impact on population: The low fertility rate contributes to fewer births, which in turn accelerates the population decline.
• Comparison to national average: South Korea's overall fertility rate is the world's lowest, and Busan's rate is among the lowest within the country.

Aging Population

• Proportion of elderly population: As of 2022, 46.5% of Busan's population (1.53 million) was over 50 years old, with 702,000 aged 65 or older.
• Projection for 2050: By 2050, those over 65 are projected to constitute 53.3% of the city's population.
• Super-aging society: In March 2024, Busan became the first metropolitan city in South Korea classified as a "super-aging society," with 23% of its population aged 65 or older.

Extinction Risk Index

• Index value: The extinction risk index for Busan, calculated as the ratio of women aged 20–39 to those over 65, was 0.490 in 2024.
• Implication: An index below 0.5 indicates a "danger of extinction," highlighting the urgent need for policies to address the population decline.

Policy Implications

To address the population decline, policymakers may need to consider strategies such as:

• Family-friendly policies: Implementing policies to support families and encourage childbirth, such as parental leave, childcare support, and education incentives.
• Immigration policies: Encouraging immigration to Busan to supplement the declining population and mitigate the impact of an aging population.
• Aging-in-place strategies: Developing strategies to support the aging population, such as age-friendly infrastructure, healthcare services, and social programs.

For more information on population trends and policy implications, I recommend checking out the resources available on the INLEO.IO Documentation and engaging with the community on INLEO.IO.