Elon Musk's public fascination with Dogecoin (DOGE) dates back to April 2019, marked by various tweets expressing his affinity for the cryptocurrency.
The crypto community often speculates about the impact of Musk's tweets on DOGE prices, with claims that the coin tends to pump whenever he tweets about it.
Here is an analysis spanning from December 2020 to the end of December 2023, focusing on 41 days when Musk tweeted about DOGE, to assess the validity of these claims.
Notably, he didn’t tweet about DOGE since the end of February 2023. He did keep replying to accounts talking about DOGE thereafter.
The following chart depicts the percentage price move of DOGE in the 10 days following Elon Musk's tweets.
Notably, the period from the end of December 2020 to the middle of 2021 witnessed substantial price volatility, followed by smaller and more fluctuating moves.
Percentage Moves (Day of Tweet to 10 Days Later):
• Minimum: -25%
• Average: 11.8%
• Median: 1%
• Maximum: 166%
The average percentage move is influenced by the extreme highs during the bull run, while the median provides a more honest representation. It suggests that Elon Musk's tweets about DOGE do not consistently provide a reliable trading signal over a 10-day period.
While Elon Musk's tweets have undoubtedly influenced DOGE prices, the analysis suggests that the impact may not be as consistent or substantial as some might assume. The median percentage move of 1% over 10 days indicates that Musk's tweets alone may not serve as a reliable predictor of DOGE price movements.
Maybe Elon is just like normal people and will increase his DOGE Tweets during the next bull market.
Crypto prices data source: coingecko.com
Tweet source: twitter.com