Michael Saylor is back at it—this time trying to convince Microsoft to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet. But do we really need another leveraged Bitcoin bet in a company wrapper? Let’s break it down.
- We already have MicroStrategy (MSTR): if you want a company that's practically Bitcoin on steroids, MSTR is your pick. Saylor's company is basically a levered BTC ETF at three times the price at this point.
- There are other BTC options: whether you prefer Bitcoin ETFs or buying BTC outright, plenty of straightforward paths exist to gain exposure. Why add complexity?
Is Saylor’s true game plan to corner the Market? Let’s not kid ourselves, this isn’t just about “digital transformation” or some high-minded ideal. Saylor knows the more institutions pile into BTC, the higher his massive stash grows.
That said, it’s fascinating to watch him push the limits of this play. As long as MSTR trades at a premium to the BTC it holds, Saylor’s essentially printing free money. But how long can this last? At some point, that premium could evaporate.
Here’s the kicker: Bitcoin’s appeal to Saylor makes sense because his core business (MSTR) isn’t thriving. For him, BTC is both a narrative and a lifeline. But Microsoft? MSFT is a juggernaut with an incredibly profitable business.
The valid point Saylor does raise is this: Why is MSFT holding so much cash? For a company like Microsoft, sitting on massive cash reserves may be suboptimal. But instead of buying Bitcoin, they could focus on:
- Dividends: Rewarding shareholders directly.
- Buybacks: Boosting share value by reducing float.
Bottom line: Saylor’s pitch is bold, but MSFT doesn’t need to follow his lead. They’ve already got the tech world on lock—no need to hedge it all on BTC.
Michael Saylor got more free money. The 55% conversion premium in around 3,5 years implies a price north of $670. MSTR currently trades around $470.
https://x.com/saylor/status/1859234037186904238
I got inspired to think about this by @geekgirl's post: Michael Saylor Will Speak To Microsoft Board About Bitcoin Strategy.