Today, we’re focusing on a stock that behaves similarly to Bitcoin while also incorporating artificial intelligence. Fundamentally, opinions may vary, but the strategy of continuously buying Bitcoin—and even doing so on credit—is likely something for absolute professionals. As long as there’s a business behind it that generates revenue, speculation on credit might be manageable. Rising subscriptions for AI-powered software to streamline business operations isn’t new in the market, but it is an emerging segment.
However, the price-to-earnings ratio and rising interest rates are stumbling blocks on the path to glory. Another sign of cooling could be formed by the weekly candle tonight, as we’ve already seen a signal here. The lower trigger of the PG (a technical indicator) on a weekly basis has already been breached, albeit not yet sustainably. At the same time, Bitcoin is also having a tough day today and remains in negative territory. Who knows who might still see the ultimate chance for luck tonight and go long aggressively, both in Bitcoin and in MicroStrategy’s stock. To return to neutral territory, we’d need to at least hold the $367 mark and ideally avoid closing below it. A decisive close below this level could enable a larger ABC correction, and the starting point could be set today.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) – Market Report
1. Current Key Data
Category | Value | Description | Source | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Price | $1,850 | Last traded price (NASDAQ, June 27, 2025) | Yahoo Finance | |||
52-Week Range | $1,200 – $2,272 | High volatility due to Bitcoin exposure | MarketWatch | |||
Market Cap | $45.5B | Based on 245.78M outstanding shares | MicroStrategy IR | |||
Beta (5Y) | 2.5 | 2.5x more volatile than S&P 500 | TipRanks | |||
Short Interest | 12% (Float) | High speculation on downside | S3 Partners |
Metric | Value | Description | Source | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | $111.1M | -3.6% YoY; decline in support biz, but +61.6% AI sub growth | Q1 2025 Press Release | |||
Gross Margin | 69.4% | Slight decline from 74% (Q1 2024) | SEC Filing | |||
Net Loss | -$4.217B | Includes $5.9B unrealized Bitcoin loss (non-cash) | Bloomberg | |||
EBITDA | -$3.9B | Adjusted for Bitcoin: +$35M | S&P Capital IQ | |||
Free Cash Flow | -$18M | Liquidity strain from interest payments | MarketScreener |
Item | Value | Description | Source | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bitcoin Holdings | 214,400 BTC | Market value: ~$15.7B (at $73,000/BTC) | BTC Holdings Report | |||
Cash | $38.1M | Sharp decline (Q1 2024: $46.8M) | StockAnalysis | |||
Total Debt | $7.26B | Includes $2.2B convertible bonds (due 2027–2032) | SEC 10-Q | |||
Equity | $18.23B | Theoretical book value: ~$74/share (ex-Bitcoin: negative) | GuruFocus |
Year | Revenue (M USD) | EBIT (M USD) | EPS | Bitcoin Purchases (M USD) | Description | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025E | $463.8 | -$4,291 | -$15.49 | $1,800 | Consensus: "Hold" (12 of 20 analysts) | TipRanks |
2026E | $487.5 | $1,676 | $6.12 | – | Recovery if BTC stabilizes | LongForecast |
2027E | $512.3 | $3,105 | $8.44 | – | Profitability from AI revenue | ARK Invest Research |
Theme | Details | Assessment | Source | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AI Push | Named "AI Innovation Leader" in retail (NRF 2025) | Positive for long-term growth | Investing News | |||
Bitcoin Strategy | Plans for more BTC buys (2025: +$1.8B)—high BTC dependency | High risk | CryptoRank | |||
Legal Risks | Lawsuits over digital asset accounting | Near-term negative | GlobeNewswire |
Kategorie | Wert | Beschreibung | Quelle | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aktueller Kurs | $1,850 | Letzter Handelskurs (NASDAQ, 27.06.2025) | ||||
52-Wochen-Spanne | $1,200 – $2,272 | Hohe Volatilität durch Bitcoin-Exposure | ||||
Marktkapitalisierung | $45,5 Mrd. | Berechnet aus 245,78 Mio. ausstehenden Aktien | ||||
Beta (5J) | 2,5 | 2,5x höhere Volatilität als S&P 500 | ||||
Short Interest | 12% (Float) | Hohe Spekulation auf Kursrückgang |
Metrik | Wert | Beschreibung | Quelle | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Umsatz | $111,1 Mio. | -3,6% YoY; Rückgang im Support-Geschäft, aber +61,6% Wachstum bei AI-Abos | ||||
Bruttomarge | 69,4% | Geringfügiger Rückgang von 74% (Q1 2024) | ||||
Nettoverlust | -$4,217 Mrd. | Davon $5,9 Mrd. unrealisierter Bitcoin-Verlust (nicht cash-wirksam) | ||||
EBITDA | -$3,9 Mrd. | Bereinigt um Bitcoin-Bewertung: +$35 Mio. | ||||
Free Cash Flow | -$18 Mio. | Operative Liquiditätsbelastung durch Zinszahlungen |
Position | Wert | Beschreibung | Quelle | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bitcoin-Bestand | 214.400 BTC | Marktwert: ~$15,7 Mrd. (bei $73.000/BTC) | ||||
Liquide Mittel | $38,1 Mio. | Stark rückläufig (Q1 2024: $46,8 Mio.) | ||||
Gesamtverschuldung | $7,26 Mrd. | Inkl. $2,2 Mrd. wandelbarer Anleihen (fällig 2027–2032) | ||||
Eigenkapital | $18,23 Mrd. | Theoretischer Buchwert: ~$74/Aktie (ohne Bitcoin-Bewertung: negativ) |
Jahr | Umsatz (Mio. USD) | EBIT (Mio. USD) | EPS | Bitcoin-Kauf (Mio. USD) | Beschreibung | Quelle |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025E | $463,8 | -$4,291 | -$15,49 | $1.800 | Konsens: „Hold“ (12 von 20 Analysten) | |
2026E | $487,5 | $1,676 | $6,12 | – | Erholung bei stabilen BTC-Kursen | |
2027E | $512,3 | $3,105 | $8,44 | – | Profitabilität durch AI-Umsatz |
Thema | Details | Bewertung | Quelle |
---|---|---|---|
KI-Offensive | Auszeichnung als „AI Innovation Leader“ im Retail (NRF 2025) | Positiv für langfristiges Wachstum | |
Bitcoin-Strategie | Weiterer Kauf geplant (2025: +$1,8 Mrd.) – Abhängigkeit von BTC-Kursen | Hohes Risiko | |
Rechtliche Risiken | Sammelklagen wegen Bilanzierung digitaler Vermögenswerte | Kurzfristiger Negativfaktor |