Bitcoin is going UP!
Other cryptos will go UP!
10x will strike all over the place.
Your bags will get bigger!
But, what do you do when the bull market is coming to an end?
What is your exit strategy?
Exit Strategies
Your exit strategy really depends on what you feel will be like.
Where are we on the crypto adoption pathway?
Will bitcoin do its usual, and crash 60-80% at the end of this bull run? Or will selling your bitcoin just ensure that you will never have any bitcoin again?
Here are some of the possible exit strategies:
- Sell cryptos, Buy real estate
- Sell cryptos, Buy precious metals
- Sell cryptos, Buy dollars
- Sell cryptos, Buy stable coins
- Don't Sell cryptos, because there is nothing better than crypto
- Trade cryptos for a homestead
- Sell cryptos??? For what? The dollar is already dead. Crypto is now money
- No one is selling bitcoin
Which looks best to you?
There will come a time when no one will trade bitcoin for dollars
It is clear that bitcoin is going up!
It is also clear that the dollar is going down!
There comes a time when bitcoin goes parabolic on a log-scale graph.
And there will come a time when the dollar goes to zero.
When are these times?
Are they this 4 year cycle?
Are they the next 4 year cycle?
This is really important to get right, because in this time of change, we can be selling into something that is disappearing tomorrow.
HODL
Trading between cryptos and stable coins is a plan to preserve your gains.
However, we are not perfect, and we could swap out at the WRONG!!! time. And the probability that floor falls out from under the dollar or dollar-stable coins goes up each year. We all know the dollar collapse is coming, but more than one of us has thought it should have come a decade ago.
And, for all that risk, what are you gaining?
If you have one bitcoin, you will eventually have more wealth than you could spend. When a bitcoin is worth more than a million dollars, how many do you need to retire? When a bitcoin is worth more than ten million dollars, even a tenth of a bitcoin is enough to retire. And bitcoin will continue going up. At some point a satoshi will be a significant amount.
So, all that risk is just moving the retirement possibility forward a few years.
And so a valid strategy is to HODL.
But, what is a good exit strategy to pair with this?
Will you trade bitcoin for a homestead?
Will you just wait until crypto is money?
Trade crypto for a place to live
One of the big things i see happening is crypto going up, and housing going down.
There will be a rush to get into crypto. At some point, the crowd is going to see that they need to hold crypto.
There will be a rush to get out of real estate. There is so much downward pressure on real estate. AirBNB becoming non-viable means a lot of houses on the market. Boomers moving out, means a lot of houses on the market. REITs dropping like rocks, means a lot of houses on the market.
And so, i am anticipating that the tiny amount of crypto that will purchase a house to be quite shocking.
And when you can trade a small portion of your crypto bag for a house, even it is only a place to live for a few years, it may be a great trade for you.
My favorite is trading crypto for a homestead. I am unsure if good homestead properties will go down as much as suburban houses, but you will just have to keep your eyes peeled and jump on one when you find something good, at a good price.
There are lots of ways to skin this cat, however, if you do not have a plan, you will fail.
Imagine trying to trade crypto for a house just after the ATH, and everything has a 60% pull-back! That would really suck.
However, bitcoin may go from an ATH of $500,000 to $200,000 new floor. Which, at that point in the future, will suck, but from today's point, that is still up 3x, and the houses are ⅒ of their current price. But, do not be hopeful for this outcome, be ready to trade in 2025.
And, if we have one more cycle, selling bitcoin at anything above the new bitcoin floor will be a win. (just how much of a win?)
BUT! in all of this, keep your eyes peeled for black swans and bubbles popping. I foresee a huge crypto crash. Like XRP dropping back to 20¢. But, but, i do not know if this is just a crypto market crash, or bigger crash outside, that effects crypto. And it may just be a flash crash. Sure, bitcoin is said to be trading at $20k, but you can't get onto any exchanges, type of thing.
Of course, if you just HODL, it isn't that many more years before crypto is money.