Just buy up alt-coins when they are low, and sell them when they are high. There, that is all that you need to know! Thanks for reading this blog…
If it were that easy, all of us would be rich. None of us would have round tripped. It would be lambos for everyone.
So, there is a lot more that we need to know.
Further, everything is changing. I mean, really changing. Moody's downgraded The US Dollar. (the FRN - Federal Reserve Note in specific, and i need to disambiguate the two, because there may be both here in a little bit. A FRN and an American Dollar printed by the treasury)
More changes:
- 90% of crypto projects will disappear / become worthless
- It may be unwise to hold dollars / Euros / Yen
- Wars and trade-wars may make things very expensive or not even available.
- Mass die-offs
- Old assets dying, and new assets rising.
And so, as an example, what will you do with your alt coins when they are at the peak? And the dollar is crashing? While food is sky-rocketing? And the NYSE is closed due to fraud?
Things are not the same as they were last cycle
We now have institutional investors in the market. And they are manipulating the prices of cryptos like a pro.
With the amount of bitcoin that has been sold (the stuff we know about) the price should be way over $500,000, but the pros have kept the trades off the books. They have made sure to not let bitcoin's price run.
The problem is that they will lose control. People selling bitcoin for $100k will dry up, and more investors will want bitcoin. And then, all of a sudden, bitcoin will become priceless. As in, no one on exchanges are offering bitcoin for sale. Bitcoin become unobtanium.
Along the way there, bitcoin will make such huge moves up and down that it will destroy the ETFs. People in the ETFs will lose soooo much money because the ETFs will break circuits, and so, those inside will not see all the move. Then people will be, "Why don't we just hold bitcoin?"
So, ummm, just hold bitcoin. You will be super-rich… if you can afford the transaction fees.
What do you really want?
Everyone today (well, almost everyone) counts their wealth in dollars.
People have a retirement account, with lots of stocks and bonds in it, but no one counts their portfolio as "I have 300 AAPL", almost all of them say i have $60,000 in stocks.
So, the magic point today, for retirement is a million dollars saved (although that may be 2½ million now).
But, what happens when the FRN is crashing, or just gone?
The thing to do is plan for what you want, and think of your stash in terms of that.
Like, what percent of your stash does it take to buy the property you want?
If you have 1 bitcoin, then when the house you want falls below ⅒th of a bitcoin, then it is probably a good time to buy it. It will just be a matter of time before the price falls into your range.
So, make a list of all the things you need (and want) to live a good life. And trade for them as you see deals show up.
There is no where to run to.
Sure, there will probably be a blow-off-top in crypto this year.
But, what can you do with that knowledge?
We used to sell into dollars or USDT. That was the way to "take profit". It is what everyone did. But, what do you do when the FRN is crashing? What do you do if the FRN hasn't crashed yet, but it is really looking shaky? Can you get out of crypto, wait for the crash/pull-back and buy back in?
Bitcoin will probably crash 50%, after the blow-off-top, from $1,000,000 to a measly $500,000. And thus, if the FRN stays ok, then you could double your bitcoin. But, what if the FRN has crashed?
The good thing is, if the FRN has crashed, then it is a simple decision to stay in bitcoin, as everyone will be doing everything they can to get into bitcoin, and the price will go up and never come down.
The problem with this thinking is that only a very small percentage has gotten into crypto. And if the FRN collapses, we will need a new fiat to replace it quickly. (and my guess is a new dollar, from the treasury (not the Fed) and backed by a basket of commodities, like gold, oil…)
So, this is going to be one of those times when it may be better to just ride the crypto down and back up again. There are too many things shifting. But, i am pretty sure that bitcoin will be way up there, into the stratosphere where normal people can't spend it all. It continues to go up faster then you can spend it.
The old methods and plans will no longer work. So, there is no good, one-size fits all plan of how to keep your crypto wealth.
Will the FRN collapse this year, or during the next 4 year cycle?
Will crypto adoption happen this year as everyone rushes to get out of the dollar/Euro?
Will govern-cements collapse? Will we be in war?
Will China stop trade, and Wallymart shelves be empty?
Will housing drop this year? Or will it be next year?
The only thing that i can strongly suggest is to HODL bitcoin. It is the only crypto that i know will continue. However, i believe Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Doge, Digibyte will make it too, and will probably be better places to park your wealth. (The alta-reports have forecast Litecoin being 5:1 with bitcoin. So, totally worth holding 5 or 10 litecoin just for the chance)
The other thing i can suggest is to have your eyes on what you want, so that you can live your life the way you want, and plot advantageous points of when to trade cryptos for real world goods.
But, anyway, there will be so much money flowing into cryptos that even a small bag will make it so that you can retire. Some channels are talking about 0.01 bitcoin now as the bar to reach.
Keep your seed phrases safe.