The more i watch the real estate market, the more i am convinced that we are going to make 2008 look like petty crooks robbing a candy store.
If we just look at the market, we see the mean housing price continue to go up. This indicator usually tells which way the housing market is going, but today, it is very misleading. The high paid upper management are the only ones buying. And they are buying expensive houses (often for $100k off) So, the mean is incredibly skewed. Further, the average houses aren't selling at all. Open houses are seeing no interest. Real estate agents are losing their jobs or quitting.
The housing market is dead.
The commercial real estate market is hoping for a miracle, but they are dead, and are going to take banks down with them.
Sellers are lowering house prices by $10k, and still not getting any bites.
They need to drop the price in half. But people hold onto their house's "perceived" value, instead of actually reading the market. This will cost them even more as the Fed continues to push rates up to destroy the economy.
This depression hasn't even started.
The Fed plans to crash the economy, and then buy up everything with their partner firms.
Unbeknownst to the Fed, the suburban housing market will never come back.
(well, T.H.E.Y. think that they will replace suburbs with 15 minute cities)
The blue cities are all dying. Yet people will hold on
Everything nice about living in a city is gone. Sure, you can argue that only 30% of the restaurants in California are closed, but businesses only disappear during hard times, not come back. So, the 30% is just the beginning.
The only businesses in blue cities soon will be concrete bunkers with a little window and a one-way door to push out your purchase.
All the big corporations are laying people off. This has a city wide destructive effect. Now that the corp job is gone, the person that served them coffee will also be gone. The store that sells them food has to downsize…
Crime will increase due to less jobs (and less police that prosecute shoplifters).
Cities will no longer be the nice places you would want to live.
However, people are still stuck on the idea of living in the cities because of all the amenities, and the night life. They can't see themselves leaving. This is the lifestyle they want. They can't see that the lifestyle is gone. Not leaving, gone.
All the ways that suburban real estate dies
The suburban real estate market bubble was re-inflated with very cheap money. It is actually going to pop this time. Unlike in 2008.
We have way too many houses. We just don't realize it yet, because we are just cresting the top. From here on out, there will be a glut of inventory. So many houses for sale, and so few buyers. Until you won't be able to give away a suburban house.
My best guess is that over 50% of the people will die in the next ten years, and of the remaining most will leave the suburbs. The only people left in cities will be criminals.
50% is a big number, but i am probably being conservative on these numbers
- Boomers are leaving. They are starting to drop. Soon it will be a flood. Still the largest segment of the population.
- VAXXXed deaths will increase. Going up and up as we reach the 5 year mark. And T.H.E.Y. want to VAXXX more, new disease on the way.
- Natural disasters. Floods, large enough to wipe out the Mississippi corridor. Hurricanes and twisters will continue to increase.
- War, civil war. All over the world. And we just let in a million soldiers into America through our southern border.
- Immigrants will be leaving. Planted in the ground, or escaped across the border. This will take a lot of population with them.
At minimum, half of the suburban houses will be empty. And they may not have utilities. Selling a suburban house will become next to impossible.
How Much Writing On The Wall Do People Need?
All of this, and people are still trying to get into their first homes.
Or have given up on ever owning a home.
People are trying to cut back. To slice all the fat out of their budgets. To just make it to the next payday.
Unfortunately this will not work.
The world we knew, that we grew up in, is over, gone.
People living in cities will have to decide between pay the rent or buy food. This is inevitable. Inflation is not "under control", unless you believe that T.H.E.Y. want the inflation and are controlling it higher.
The people that give up paying rent early will be in trouble, but soon, almost everyone will give up on paying rent. Then what? You going to evict everyone?
- Food is going to go up, and then will become scarce.
- Electricity is going to go up, as planned.
- Insurance is going to go up, and everyone will be pissed when they pay the high rates, and find they are never paid out.
- Crime is going to go up.
The infrastructure has been left to rot and break down.
If you have a suburban house, i highly suggest selling and buying a homestead.
The yuppy lifestyle is dead and gone, and never coming back.
I am very sorry to all the people who think they are making it. Just scraping by. They hardships haven't even begun.
However, cryptos will go way, way up, and allow you to purchase what you need, when others are penniless. So that, although these will seem like very bad times, they will also be great times. Where the new crypto rich can by the land they have always wanted and have a house built. (several houses for all their friends) Where crypto is going to invest in all kinds of new technologies. We will have flying cars, and free electricity, and water piped through the sky.
The banks will die, and thank goodness, but there will also be those who will gnash their teeth because that was all the money they had.
Things are going to change drastically. Do not hold onto the old. Like a person drowning holding for dear life to an anchor.
Restaurants and grocery stores will be a thing we tell our children about. Things that used to exist, like a corded telephone, in a booth.
So, build the new things that you have always wanted. Let go of that suburban house. Sell it while selling is still possible.