So many people i know are in the hospital, right now, for cancer. (or have recently died.) And, i feel this is just the beginning. So many deaths, meaning the Housing Inventory will be larger than the demand.
But this isn't all. Everything is against the real estate market. Everything.
So, a crash is inevitable, however, i do not think it is going to be just a crash, because there are a lot of factors that will lead to the idea of "real estate" just going away. So, no just a crash. No more market.
Those people who were relying on the value of their home(s) for retirement or inheritance, have a very short time to sell, and they will already have to drop the price quite a bit to get any nibbles.
It looks like it is going to be an all at once thing. Faster than 2008, and it is going to keep going down. There is no recovery to a housing market where there will be more houses than people who want a house. And further, many people moving away from the cities; not wanting a house in the city or suburbs.
There will be housing tracts that are mostly empty.
A house is a depreciating asset
Houses fall apart over time. So, its value is decreasing over time. So why is its price going up over time?
Inflation and scarcity.
We have never built enough houses for everyone. This appears to be by design/conspiracy, but it may just be because of capitalism. (If you make too many, you drive the price down)
So, what happens if there aren't enough babies being born? Demographic collapse is rampant. Just this means there will be more houses than people who want houses. So, the house prices will be dropping.
And, although there will be tons of inflation, it won't keep house prices from plummeting. When there is much more supply than demand, in a normal market, the price falls. But that is a market where things are constantly moving, people adjusting supply and demand.
These houses, that are getting older, will have almost no value, as there are many houses left empty, just waiting for someone to move in.
The demographics are not the only thing crashing.
And wait! There's more!
All causes mortality is still going up, and banks are showing signs of collapsing, everywhere.
The big reason house prices are as high as they are is because banks can just make money out of thin air to create a mortgage. So, each mortgage gets bigger than the last. But, what if there weren't many bank left to lend money? And those left had sky high criteria? Than, all that could be offered for a house is what people had saved up. (most people do not have $500 for an emergency)
Add that up with more and more people are dying. Boomers will be moving to retirement homes or mortuary plots. Turbo cancers are taking out lots of people. And then, you add in all the natural (and unnatural) disasters coming. There is going to be a lot less people.
Basically, at some point, you won't be able to give away a house in the suburbs.
People moving away from the cities.
Blue cities are getting worse and worse. Homeless, migrants, crime, riots, layoffs, are all adding up to a place where only those who can't afford to leave, stay.
A large movement, of people moving to be with their "family" is starting, and these people will mostly move out to the country and build a large homestead. So, that is more people leaving the cities.
So, i am not kidding when i said there will be mostly empty tract home areas.
Further, dumbocraps believe in Marx; they believe in communal property, so, these people will soon get the idea that they can just find an empty house and move into it. And thus, will start the discussion about "real estate" and property rights.
This ends with a completely different understanding of what being a home owner means, especially when we start seeing "families" and their "family homes" start to appear. Who owns the "family" homestead?
So, people who can, move away from the cities. People who are left, pay no heed to property rights. So, you won't be able to sell a suburban home: No buyers, no lenders, and no one valuing property rights. (and no one left to enforce property rights)
All of these things i laid out here are pretty much inevitable. Miracles could happen, but they are not likely considering the directions repulsivikins and dumbocraps are pushing things.
I have not brought up:
- immigrants making a run for the border
- ice age
- another pandemic / scamdemic
- civil war
- breakdowns in shipping
- food shortages.
All of which just stack onto the destruction of the suburban real estate market.
If you want to sell a house, you have not much time left. We are already seeing prices drop, investors are dumping homes, and soon we will see a race for the bottom. There isn't enough demand in existence to fill the supply that exists. The house prices might stabilize for a little bit around the actual construction cost of the house (not the land), but soon after, it will continue its journey to $0.