So RLB which in theory has the best burn mechanic out there has been in a 80+ Week downtrends (with some minor peaks along the way) while it is up over +1100% since the start still. Recently there was another big dip and some drama around the team who seem to also be behind another new gambling site that paid a ton of money to influences to shill it...
The Rollbit Drama:
So there has always been fud around Rollbit as they kind of came out of nowhere, making a ton of revenue, and many claimed it was all fake. However, there is an RLB burn of part of the revenue which decreased the max supply by almost 60% and it is ongoing still.
It never made sense though for the price to be in this contant downfall given how much revenue Rollbit is claiming they generate. However, recently it was revealed that the same team who are behind rollbit are now also behind the competitor luck.io
It was revealed that they pay 500k/ month to some influencers and that it's the same team behind rollbit. This while the updates done to rollbit have been neglectable for quite some times while the numbers have been going down. The teams also confirmed that they are behind the other site and claims they still have focus on rollbit.
However, it really feels kind of scammy and I understand that the community is pissed and are dumping as the trust is just broken now.
The Rollbit Numbers:
As someone who previously was invested in the Rollbit & Sportsbot NFT's and still has a position in RLB, I have been keeping the numbers for quite some time. In the end part of the revenue is used to buy back and burn RLB which can be seen on-chain. As the price drops the pace of the burn should increase if the revenue remains tha same or goes higher.
The Supply Burn Chart vs Price:
Basically, my personal rule is to potentially sell RLB in case the yearly supply burn percentage goes below 15% and potentially buy more if it goes above 30%. In the last couple weeks, the burn has been around 20%-22%. Which actually means that the revenue has been decreasing as the price has been in decline.
The Weekly Burn Value in Dollar:
I took the numbers from the moment that the new burn forumla was implemented and removed the 'scam' candle (8 Million Dollars+) where they burned all the RLB from those who did not pay attention and got theirs off Solana where part of the supply was bridged.
Si ti shows that the revenue is going down and reached a new low last week even though the decline is also not extreme when looking at the last year.
The Lottery Jackpot Value:
So part of the profit is put in a lottery and a jackpot for RLB holers which I have also tracked the data of. Similar to the overall revenue, it has not reached new highs and currently sits at over 215k
The Regular Lottery Payouts: This also has been going down slowly but surely without anything extreme.
On Chain RLB Holdings: I've been tracking these for a while after seeing that the biggest on Chain RLB holder has a huge chunck of the supply. What I assume is that they are from the devs themselves and that the entire 'buy-and-burn' kind of was a way to 'buy from themselves' and take profit as the held supply has gone down drastically for some time before the it stopped. For 30 weeks now, no coins have gone out of that wallet and it holds just over 50% of the supply.
Number of RLB Holders: The number of holders on the ETH chain is also something that I tracked and funnily enough this started to go down around the same time that the address of the biggest RLB Holder stopped decreasing. So it might be that funds either were distributed to other accounts and afterwards dumped, that Rollbit has more account who now pumped instead of the main address, or that just more and more people were getting out.
Sportsbot Value
I once owned some Rollbit NFT's and a Sportsbot which I was kind of forced to sell due to some KYC enforcement. At some time there was a massive whale (Stakestinks) who pumped up the volumes and NFT revenue to 100$+ a month for locking the one I had.
I did manage to sell at the right time as right now the profit shared is at just 8.3$ as a similar type NFT goes for 500$ or less on the market.
Where To Go From Here?
So trust has been the major issue for rollbit and the main reason why I always held off to making a bigger investment keeping it on the smaller end. This turned out the be right as the price just continued in a downtrend while they went off and create a competitor web3 gambling site. So the trust is fully broken now and I might look to get out on my RLB position on the next uptrend which I do believe will come at some point as the revenue hasn't really collapsed as much as the coin and the burn likely will increase a bit now.
Conclusion:
One of the major issues of Rollbit has always been the trust issue as the revenue and investment opportunity was 'too good to be true' while there always was some fud around that it was a ponzi. However, even though that it does look like RLB is burned at a rapid pace, the devs just increased on the fud by launching another gambling site while the overall rollbit revenue has been in a slight but steady downtrend. If anything, all of this shows the danger of when a project fully relies on people as time after time again they get greedy and screw things up for holders.
Crypto & Blockchain-Based Bookies and Exchanges that I'm personally using with some allowing anonymous betting with no KYC or personal restrictions...
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Play2Earn Games that I am Playing...
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