Week 1 in the league was a pretty odd one I would say as the main trend was that the top teams still aren't at their best because some missing players still while the smaller teams saw their chance to park the bus which led to an all time low in number of goals at only 8. With the Unders and the underdogs performing great while some of the biggest public plays lost, the bookies must have made a killing in week 1.
Dodging Bullets & Avoiding Land Mines!
I'm quite pleased to come out of this week with some profit and it was all about dodging bullets and avoiding to step on land mines (Mainly Racing Genk against Standard). I did manage to get in on my bigger pre-game bets at a good time having solid closing line value but at the same time also managed to get out of them at least partially when needed and the live bets along with the corners were good.
So the tone really has been set for a long season which will be a grind with little to no room for any major mistakes. I still highly enjoy all of it and am up for the challenge already looking forward to next week.
Record Keeping
The main reason I make previews sharing pretty much everything that I bet at the time that I take it either on my blog or in the SBC Discord is for myself as it helps me to stay in a good routine and keep sharp. I don't care whatsoever if anyone reads it or not or tries to follow which likely will be hard given the small room for odds drops. The earnings from blogging on Hive is also one of those things that add up over time especially if there would be another bull run like last time.
I do believe there is tremendous value in my blogging as I pretty much lay down in a very practical, transparent and realistic way how to beat the market without having anything to sell to anyone. This I would say is very rare and I don't know many that do this at least for such a long time. The plan is to continue the way I'm doing things right now and adjust when needed.
Pre-Game Preview Bets Season 2024-2025
In a way so far, I absolutely crushed in on the Main Highlighted Pre-Game bets despite them having a 0W-2L-3P Record so far this season. The main indicator anyone has to see if they are playing with a profit expectation is to compare the odds to the Pinnacle closing line. On all 5 bets so far these have been far lower. To be exact -16% / -35% / -34% / -19% / -5% so I couldn't be more pleased with that and frustrated with the results even though by no means it should all have been winners.
In the end, it remains a long-term game with short term variance and things are bound to even out. I'm also still up +46.669 units after 715 bets.
Previous 4 Seasons Result
Season 2024-2025 Personal Betting Chart
As always this early in the season with only a handful of bets, it's hard to really say much about the results graph and I'm quite sure it will make major jumps to either side in the coming weeks to eventually near the and not be crazy far away from the pink expected profit line which I have set at +3%. This is just below the average of the past +6 years. What I care more about is the overall volume and how to get that up as it was only at 4.245 units in total this week, which is simply too low. It remains very tricky however to bet bigger edges with lower stakes and the smaller edges with higher stakes which is what I need to do to get it up. There also just isn't enough room with a +3% ROI expectation to go much lower on average odds. So I will try to do what I can to up my average stake in week 2 going forward getting the total closer to 8-10 units staked each week.
Regular Season Results 2024-2025
Week 01 Results 34 Bets | 11W-14L-09P | Staked 04.245u | +0.145u Profit
Week 00 Results 10 Bets | 05W-04L-01P | Staked 00.860u | -0.046u Loss
Total Season 2023-2024 Results
44 Bets | 16W-18L-10P | 5.105 Staked | +0.099u Profit | +1.95% ROI
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