Let us summarize the data that signal a possible low point reached by btc for this cycle (for explanations, reread the Tuesday posts of previous weeks):
The btc quote is steadily below its "Realized Price" for this cycle.
RVT has risen to abnormally high levels .
Dormant flows have collapsed to very low levels.
The ratio of selling prices between holders and traders (LTH and STH Price Spent Ratio) rose above 1.
Realized Loss Ratios (Realized Loss Ratio) in the latest selling waves have risen above 1 percent of btc market capitalization.
The Puell Multiple has plummeted below 0.5.
The percentage of available coins still in profit is about 50% of total coins (btc).
The Mayer Multiple is at 0.50,
The values reached in the metrics just listed are the same values that btc had touched when it reached an all-time low in all its previous cycles, bar none.
So far, it has never happened that, having reached these levels, btc has not started a new upward cycle.
At the same time, we see an interesting pattern in the curve of the "Ark Innovation" Etf, Cathie Wood's famous Etf that tracks the performance of the high-growth technology stocks sector.
Many have noticed that this sector of the stock market has always moved along with the crypto sector. In particular, ARK's performance has been particularly similar to that of btc (many use both as proxies for their respective sectors).
Let's see then where ARK's trend stands....
Since the beginning of June, the ETF has formed what is known to traders as a bullish ascending triangle.
Basically, the triangle is formed when curve resistance (upper green line) and curve support (lower green line) converge.
Currently, the resistance that had formed around $45 and the support that started around $35 are converging due to the rise of support toward $43-44.
This type of convergence usually precedes a short-to-medium term parabolic rise (green arrow).
Just to be clear: the general picture of the stock exchanges is still that of a sideways-bearish market, in which, however, some short-to-medium-term bullish trends in some sectors could enter.
The same is true for cryptocurrencies, a sector in which we may begin to see a halt in the downward parabola and an onset of laterality punctuated by moments of sharp rises.
In either case, these upturns are not an end in themselves, but part of the usual behavior of the most volatile, high-growth sectors, which anticipate, even long before, a subsequent long-term general bullish cycle.
The bear market does exist, but it is in its final stages, which may last much longer.