Bitcoin Weekly Review
In the year of the rabbit, bitcoin finally woke up after a long period of consolidation, in which it found itself after the collapse of the FTX exchange. It took 53 days for the buyers to win back all the losses he suffered from November 8 to 21, 2022. The BTC/USDt pair recovered 22.66% to $21,258.
Bitcoin resumed its rally from Monday (January 9). Risk appetite grew on the news from China and the weakening dollar. China opened its borders with Hong Kong, lifted the quarantine for tourists and restrictions on the movement of citizens in the country. During the day, bitcoin followed the S&P500 index.
On Tuesday (January 10), buyers approached the $17,500 resistance after a speech by Fed Chairman J. Powell. The lack of comments on monetary policy allowed the first cryptocurrency to resist the dollar and take a good position ahead of the publication of the inflation report in the US.
On Wednesday (January 11), buyers consolidated above $17,500, moving up to $18,500. The active growth phase of quotes fell on the American session, when the S&P500 and Nasdaq indexes began to rise.
On Thursday (January 12), Bitcoin rose 5.03% against the dollar, to $18,846. Growth of quotations intensified after the release of the US inflation report for December. In December, inflation slowed down significantly compared to November. Statistics pointed to a slowdown in the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve System. Investors began to sell the dollar and buy risky assets for it, including cryptocurrency.
On Friday (January 13), buyers maintained momentum, managing to move northbound an additional 5.75% to $19,930. The US stock market continued to rise, as statistics on Thursday showed the weakening of price pressure in the US. Money market participants estimate the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in February at 93.7%. As a result of the day, American indices closed with growth.
On Saturday (January 14), the BTC/USDt pair rose to $21,258. Since buyers have passed the $18,500 level, the road to the $21,500-22,500 zone is now open to them. On Sunday (January 15) the price is spinning around the level of 20760 in anticipation of the opening of the Asian session.
Since the beginning of the year, the price has increased by 28%. It should be noted that the growth of quotations is fast. And when the price rises quickly, it often leads to sharp pullbacks. I believe that after testing the $22,000-22,500 zone, the market will move into a corrective phase, in which it will stay until the US Federal Reserve meeting (February 1).
As soon as buyers gain a foothold above $22,500, it will be possible to talk about the onset of crypto spring. Over the past four days, $324 million in bitcoin short positions have been liquidated on major crypto exchanges. After the price rises to $22,500, sellers will be reluctant to open short positions.
After the collapse of the Luna project and the FTX exchange, Bitcoin became a whipping boy. Trust in the crypto industry has been undermined. Despite this, calls to invest in cryptocurrencies may appear on the Internet next week due to the possible suspension of the US Government. The crypto market is low-liquid, so if the media pick up the idea with a ceiling and call the cue ball a protective asset, then investors will start buying cryptocurrency, fearing that they will not have time to get on the train in time.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned US lawmakers on Jan. 13 that the federal government would hit the debt ceiling next week and urged them to take timely action to increase or suspend the limit. The limit will be exhausted on January 19. The Ministry of Finance will not be able to fulfill its obligations. Today, the national debt is $31.4 trillion. Does anyone believe that it will shrink? Me not.
In my opinion, the markets are not threatened now. For the United States, a long debate on the ceiling of the national debt is a common thing, but this year the media can shake this topic with renewed vigor. The government repeatedly suspended work when it could not agree. Under Clinton, state employees were sent on vacation for 21 days, under Obama - for 16 days, under Trump - for 20 days. If something goes wrong, the US will change the rules of the game.