I've been pondering the whole crypto thing for a while, watching Bitcoin rise, watching the general markets start to simmer a little bit. Seems like things are starting to move, at least a little.

I no longer watch the price of Hive on a daily basis — or even on a regular basis — because doing so just gives me a headache. Instead, I watch what feels like a more significant indicator: The number of Hive's market cap rank relative to the rest of the cryptosphere.

That particular metric is not very pretty because it looks very much like a long slow slide into obscurity.

As I checked in this morning, the price of Hive had done its usual sideways boogaloo, while losing another 5 or 6 spots downwards in the rankings to sitting at number 376 according to Coinmarketcap.

It's not exactly something that makes me want to break out the champagne.

But let's try to find something to be cheerful about here, and the only thing I can really think of so far is keeping an eye on the Bitcoin Dominance number. In a general sort of sense Bitcoin dominance has been rising steadily for a while, and history has taught us that Altcoin rallies tend to grow out of Bitcoin dominance spiking.

I'm no financial expert, and this should definitely NOT be taken as investment advice, but it seems to me like we may have a while more of nothingness to go, with Bitcoin dominance currently sitting at 59% or thereabouts compared to 70% immediately preceding the previous altcoin rally. Although the pattern also exists for 2017, that one is harder to look at because it represented the whole idea of altcoins really coming to life, as more than just a sideshow.

Of course, there are a lot more Altcoins in the marketplace today, particularly if you count the myriad meme coins that have actually gained significant value... so Bitcoin dominance may not have to get all the way back to the 70% range before something starts moving... hence, I think we're moving in a direction where something positive could happen in the not so distant future.

Sometimes I sit here and shake my head at the (historical) realization that there was a time when Hive — well, its legacy chain — was actually a Top Ten ranked coin!

The burning question in my mind is how many people are going to throw in the towel and give up before the next great Altcoin run starts... which actually seems likely to happen in 2025, perhaps starting in spring or summer.

Again, I'm no financial expert and we each have our own interpretations of what seems obvious and right in front of our faces. And maybe this simply amounts to hopium and little more. Could be that there won't even be a runup for older currencies... it might be limited to what they markets see as "new and exciting."

This circus is definitely not dominated by rationality and logic!

Thanks for coming to visit, and do leave a comment if you feel so inclined!

=^..=