I don't post a lot on Leo but I would like to start a quick discussion about where everyone thinks the Hive price is heading to get a general sentiment. Do people think it's ready to break out to the $2 level or do we think its going to test the 45-50 cent mark again ? This graph is log scale so you can see the 10x run up between January and April.
As they say history does not repeat but it often rhymes. So lets have a quick look at the last bull run and Hive before the fork (aka Steem in 2017). It did not kick off until March 2017 going 7.5x from 6 cents to 45 cents, corrected/consolidated around the 15cents then over eight weeks from mid April to mid June went almost 20x from 15 cents to $2.9. Then spent 5 months correcting/consolidated down from $2.9 down to 75cents. Then for the blow off crypto top it went a final 12x from 75cents up to $9 in just 4 weeks ! I remember the mania of that time well. You could not open new Fiat to Crypto portals with out a month KYC wait and I had friends who FOMOd into Steem once their account opened at $8!
One thing to watch for with Hive is due to the long power down periods the downward price discovery consolidation periods can be long as it takes 13 weeks before anyone who wanted to dump can dump. The inverse is true due when it moves, there is basically limited liquid supply to stop it going 10 or 20x in 4 weeks or so as people don't have access to any significant amount of powered up funds. This is one of the reasons the Koreans like to pump steem/hives as it is sensitive to supply side shocks as real liquidity is much lower than the apparent total circulating supply.
Few different things happening this time around. How will the new hive loans project that @klye is working on effect this once people can borrow against their hive power to get liquidity fast ? Also how will the impending market supply crunch caused by the HBD stabilizer fund change things when we pump next given we have had negative inflation these past few months due to the HBD pump and buyback.
Another major change is the new HBD conversions for HF25 where people will be able to convert Hive into what is hopefully then a true stablecoin (HBD) and put it into savings just in the wallet for some decent DiFi IRR. Given you need to buy hive to make HBD this may actually make Hive a lot more stable also (as falling hive price will increase demand for HBD as a stable coin which will increase demand of Hive to make more HBD. The opposite also being true).
Then finally the elephant in the room is that Hive actually looks like a place where people might stick around this time. Anyone who remembers trending back in Dec 2017 knows it was full of literal shit posts getting $600 upvotes. Once the financial incentive of the frenzy disappeared most people left to a small contingent of hard core people and mostly a ghost platform. Some like myself stuck around. I have built followings (80k people ) on other platforms like Instagram and know how hard it actually is and its always the long consistent game that wins with respect to social media. I cant help but think that this time we are actually ready for the masses (both content and scalability wise), so fingers crossed the price might actually stick at an elevated level as the network effect kicks in more than it did last time.
I get the feeling this bull run is running early compared to the last bitcoin halving. So am not convinced we will last until December before the blow off top. But it is a mega bubble pandemic year where the fiat printers have been going hard; so anything is possible. We don't even start price discovery until $9.
One last key point is not to take financial advice from photographers. If you would like to learn a little bit more about my background in photography you can read the interview @photofeed did with me here.
Robert Downie
Love Life, Love Photography