If you check the Hive blockchain explorer, hiveblocks.com now, on the left side you will see info what the vesting fund is, or how much Hive is vested. Translated to ordinary Hiver this represent how much Hive is powered up.
@thepeakstudio image
</br?
At the moment of writing this posts hiveblocks reports 138,056,490 HIVE powered up.
Here I will be reverse engineer so to speak the amount of Hive Powered up over time.
The method is as follow:
- Take the current number for Hive Power
- Data for Hive Power Up over time
- Data for Hive Power Down over time
- Data for Hive Power rewards (new HP) put in circulation daily
First, we calculate the net Hive powered up or down per day, and then subtruct that to the latest number, all the way back.
Power UP VS Power Down
Here is the chart with the difference in HIVE power up VS power down, including the daily rewards in Hive Power (author rewards, curation rewards, witnesses rewards).
The all time net powered up/down Hive.
Note here is all the data from the old chain as well 😊.
Its not a very clear chart but some trend can be seen. For example, a lot of powering down in the period September 2016 – April 2017, and then also March – May 2020. This period was when the exhanges were powering down.
Also, a lot of powering up, when the fight for governance of the chain was happening, end of February 2020.
If we zoom in for 2020 only the chart looks like this.
A better view here for the last year only. Once again, we can notice a lot of powering up happening at the end of February and beginning of March. That’s is when the exchanges powered up 40+M HIVE/STEEM. And we can notice the following power downs again from the exchanges. After this no big movements, except for to big power ups, 800k at the end of July and 1M just a few days ago.
Historical Data On Powered Up Hive
Now when we have the above, we can enter this in the last number for Hive Powered Up, provided from hiveblocks, and calculate the share of Hive Power Up all the way back.
Here is the chart.
We can see that the amount of Hive powered up has been around 200M historically. There is some drop in 2016, and then a steady increase. In 2019 the amount of Hive Powered Up was almost constant around 200M to 210M.
When zoom in to 2020 we have this.
2020 has been an interesting year 😊.
The sharp increase in the HP from 210 to almost 270M is due the the governance war, users but also exchanges powering up 40+M of HP.
The sharp drop in the HP afterwards is when Hive was created. When this happened an 80+M HP from Steemit Inc, plus some other users, were powered down instantly with the HF and transferred to the DAO. This huge amount of Power Down in one day is basically impossible without a HardFork.
This 80+M power down instantly brought the amount of Hive Powered Up from 260+ to around 180M HP.
In the next period we are seeing a slow decrease in the amount of HP, because of the exchanges are powering down another 40M. When this finished, we can see a steady amount of HP of around 138M HP.
If we add the 80+M HIVE in the DAO to the number above we will get somewhere around 220M HP, that is just above the 210M HP, before the sybil attack on Steem happened.
Staking rewards correlation with the total HP
15% of the HIVE inflation goes to HP holders.
Current Inflation calculation:
(978 - (head_block_number / 250000)) / 100 = 7.9%
Next calculate the staking rewards:
15% out of 7.9% = 1.19%
Now here is where the amount of Hive Powered Up influence the staking rewards.
Correction for the share of Hive Power:
Virtual Supply / Total HP
394,795,753 / 138,063,499 = 2.86
Next we correct the % of staking rewards with the ration above
1.19% * 2.86 = 3.39%
With the current level of inflation of 7.9% and the ration of total HP in the virtual supply the staking rewards are 3.39%. This is only for holding HP. Curation rewards not included.
Let’s play with this and change the total amount of HP. How will it influence things?
Here is a table.
| Total HP | Correction | Staking Rewards |
|---|---|---|
| 300,000,000 | 1.32 | 1.56% |
| 200,000,000 | 1.97 | 2.34% |
| 100,000,000 | 3.95 | 4.68% |
| 50,000,000 | 7.90 | 9.36% |
We can see that as the total HP goes down, the staking rewards for the ones holding HP increases and the opposite. Because of this it’s highly unlikely for the HP to drop to much, because at some point the rewards will be very high.
This is also the case for the curation rewards, that are even higher than the staking rewards. If the total share of HP is small only the ones holding it and curating will get rewarded.
All the best
@dalz