December 31st 2023: My Comment on Coin Bureau's Crypto Predictions ...

2023 was generally a bad year for crypto social influencers. Like in other bear markets, many reputations forged when the numbers had been going up, became worthless when the number went down and, together with them, bad crypto projects promoted by said influencers. Among those few who continue to work and enjoy some sort of respect within the cryptosphere is Guy from Coin Bureau. While you may not agree with views in his videos, those videos are produced in a very professional way, and high standards of production are matched by those views being delivered in a simple and comprehensive way.

One of Guy’s latest videos relates to Coin Bureau’s top predictions for 2023. I decided to make short post with my own commentary.

SEC approval of Bitcoin ETFs will likely happen in January 2024. If it does not, and if it is again delayed, it will cause price of BTC and other cryptocurrencies to plummet.

My view: Generally agreed. Guy’s arguments make perfect sense in light of everything we know.

BTC will hit another ATH.

My view: Again, generally agreed. Guy based his prediction of historical experiences in 2016 and 2020.

BTC halving will have next to nothing effect on price.

My view: Like with previous two, this prediction corresponds with previous experiences and with BTC halving being priced in.

First narrative of next bull market will be in the realms of social networks, fuelled increased censorship in the year of multiple elections all over the world.

My view: I’m little sceptical in light of what happened and still happens with HIVE.

Ethereum L2 protocols will begin to be adopted at the expense of L1 following Dancun upgrade and approval of Ehereum ETF.

My view: This will depend on how Ethereum behaves in bull market. So far, its rise was much subdued compared with past experiences.

Stablecoins, including Ethereum-stablecoins, will be widely accepted in commerce, especially those that aren’t pegged to USD.

My view: This prediction makes sense, at least in Europe, but sense is currently in short supply in Brusells and other European capitals.

Governments will begin to use BTC for trade.

My view: This prediction makes perfect sense and has probably already came true in one way or another.

Publicly traded companies will begin to hold BTC instead of cash.

My view: Again, hard to argue against. The only drawback against this scenario could be more incendiary political developments in USA during election year, which might make the likes of Elizabeth Warren more influential than they are now.

FTX will be restored and become major exchange again.

My view: It all depends how the IRS 24 billion US$ tax bill against FTX will play out. But I doubt that FTX will bounce back. The brand is simply too toxic at this point.

Pro-crypto politicians will be elected in USA and other countries that hold election.

My view: It all depends on different criteria. Being “pro-crypto” might mean very different things in different countries and among different politicians. There were some tentative attempts by Ryan Selkis and other major crypto people in USA to help elect pro-crypto politicians in certain races, but it generally those races were won or lost based on traditional political issues. Again, things in 2024 might change, but not as fast as many of us would hope.