Against my better judgment I threw caution to the wind and FOMOed into the Cakepop IDO this morning.
What happened then?
OOPS!
- Who could have seen this coming?!
- But what happened?
- Did we get rugged?
Hm, yes, not great!
But also not terrible! Everyone still seems in high spirits and hopeful that a lot more liquidity is coming down the pipe in the weeks to come.
This really raises the question as to why we paired our CUB to BUSD in the first place. Wouldn't it have been better to seed a CUB/CAKE pool that transitioned to CAKEPOP/CAKE? Then the yield could come directly from the LP... that's how I would have done it anyway. Oh well!
So off to a rocky start!
If I had gone with my gut I could have just bought in today at the 50% discount. No dice! I'm an ape. Ape play money game!
What about CUB though?
With the price of CUB down 5 cents from when this all started, many users who were betting that IDOs would moon the price are starting to realize that might not happen if all the liquidity keeps coming from the kingdom. Personally, I think this is ridiculous sentiment.
There are now 4 IDOs scheduled to go live within the coming weeks.
This is not even counting the CAKEPOP IDO.
Every one of these IDOs is unique. Unique team. Unique networking connection. Unique sources of liquidity. Unique IDO parameters.
So to assume that the next four IDOs are someone going to be as lackluster as this one is a little silly imo. This first IDO captured all the boredom and FOMO that the community has been experiencing for a soon™ amount of time. Next time around will be completely different. That was our first rodeo, and likely a very poor indication of how this will continue. I personally will not invest in IDOs further until they prove they are bringing outside liquidity to the network (IE CUB price goes up). I think many others will do the same.
Fool me once.
We also have to consider what happens if CAKEPOP is actually successful at attracting outside capital to this liquidity pool. It looks like an even better deal now that everyone can buy in at a discounted price from the outside looking in. There's still a ton of liquidity here for a brand new project. The free-market will roll the dice on this one. I just hope we don't roll snake eyes, but if we do it was all just for fun anyway.
YOLO
In any case, if CAKEPOP does draw in outside liquidity, some of that liquidity is going to make it's way back to the CUB ecosystem automatically. Like if tomorrow CAKEPOP did something crazy like 10x, how much of that value would get sold back into CUB? Probably quite a bit. I know I'd like to get my original investment back into the kingdom ASAP. No one is factoring in the future of CAKEPOP and how successful IDOs can moon the CUB platform twice: once during IDO and again after further value generation. So far the speculation thus far has been painfully short-sighted. That's fine though... crypto is very 'number go up' mentality (especially when meme tokens are concerned).
With the yield distributed as CAKE, this token is automated in such a way that we don't have to do anything. Even if the CAKEPOP moons we don't have to sell CAKEPOP, because we'll be given a ton of CAKE tokens as yield reward. We can sell those instead without it costing us an insane 8% fee to do so.
Speaking of yield
I've already earned $10 and volume has been pretty abysmal thus far. It's hard to imagine how high this number would be should these Telegram connections actually prove to lure the liquidity required to FOMO pump this thing. We shall see.
Yet another thing we have to consider when it comes to CUB spot price is that BNB has also been losing value over these last few days. The CUB/BNB pair accounts for 42% of all CUB liquidity. Therefore if BNB goes up or down we must assume that CUB will also move up or down with it by some percentage (probably 42%). This implies that 3% of the 7% drop we experienced was simply due to BNB arbitrage and normal volatility.
Conclusion
You can't see the forest from the trees. This is day one of IDO one. Over-projecting and extrapolating into the future based on such limited information is bound to get us in trouble.
How long can CAKEPOP last? I may ride it out till the end of the year and hope for the best. Unfortunately, I don't think a reflection token could survive any kind of bear market situation (2022). Definitely have to cash out fully before then. Again, this is just pure gambling at this point. The only reason I'm involved with CAKEPOP is that it gives me a longshot chance to pump a bag I actually care about. Cooperative capitalism at it's not so finest. Sometimes greed wins.