Bitcoin is looking extremely weak right now.
Volume has plummeted and we are still trapped in a descending triangle; where we have tested support half a dozen times, making it very weak. Not looking great in the short term.
I was thinking we'd get some market action from the states declaring a Kamala victory. That isn't happening either. A breakout to the downside seems imminent, whereas the market was looking extremely bullish just days ago. Such is scrying the tealeaves of the whimsical market.
However
Have you seen this one?
MicroStrategy Inc. is doubling down on its Bitcoin bet, saying Monday that it plans to offer $400 million of convertible bonds in order to buy more of the cryptocurrency.
So they are basically navigating around loophole financial regulations to offer these weird convertible bonds that will then be traded for Bitcoin... at all time highs... Seems bullish. That article is Bloomberg by the way; a "real" news outlet :D
Not so fast!
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/08/why-microstrategy-stock-is-tumbling-today/
Investors clearly weren't enthusiastic about the announcement. Nor was Citi analyst Tyler Radke, who downgraded the company's stock from neutral to sell. MicroStrategy's stock began skyrocketing last month, partly after a short-seller issued a positive report about the company. But Radke believes MicroStrategy's share price gains have become "overextended," and that this new debt offering and bitcoin-buying strategy make the company an incrementally riskier investment.
I guess buying at all time highs doesn't sound like a smart idea for a lot of MicroStrategy investors. Now they lose 12%. No matter.
Oops! Too late!
Bitcoin has already crashed below the triangle before I could even finish writing... BOO! Eh, whatever.
2021 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13867 | $14933 | $16000 | $17067 | $18133 | $19200 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $20267 | $21333 | $22400 | $23467 | $24533 | $25600 |
The funny thing about this $20k mental barrier is that the doubling curve will be higher than that come summer time.
Bitcoin is like life itself.
An individual life is fragile and weak, but life as a whole is extremely robust and resilient. Similarly, Bitcoin is extremely weak in terms of being under attack constantly, massive volatility swings, and short-term outlook. However, on the long term nothing can even come close to comparing to the value proposition. Bitcoin is up a million percent over every other asset. When looked at in blocks of 4 years, nothing compares. It is a unicorn asset.
Zombie corporations
Crypto is also like life in that it has an actual lifespan. Bitcoin isn't always going to be relevant like a corporation might be. A corporation can only die given a certain subset of circumstances, and can theoretically live forever, whereas every crypto will grow old and die eventually, just like every other living entity in the world.
Conclusion
Oh no! Bitcoin is crashing! Instead of trading at all time highs we are 7.5% below that! The sky is falling!
Of course, the panic will always be blown way out of proportion. Bitcoin will continue being declared dead in the decade to come even though it keeps gaining exponential value. Corporations are willing to buy at all time highs because they know in ten years Bitcoin is going x1000 and everyone else will be buying from them at a ridiculous premium.
It's not about timing the market.
It's about time in the market.