Never have I been more certain as to exactly what stage of the game we are in right now. I can see it all over Twitter, other social media, and even the news circuit.
Interestingly enough, the doomsayers are out in full force. Shame they are out here claiming gloom and doom three months too early. A market can't bubble without the actual bubble happening. All the bears are jumping the gun, knowing that this party is going to crash into the mountain sooner or later, but that's exactly the problem. The party is going to crash LATER, and their timing is going to be off just enough to get wrecked twice.
It's crazy how good markets are at swindling us from our money. A lot of these people are going to short the market on the way up and then long it on the way down. It's amazing how these silly pieces of paper can get in our heads and make us do such foolish things.
Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | $200 | $400 | $800 | $1600 |
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3200 | $6400 | $12800 | $25600 | $51200 |
The doubling curve is still spot on.
Everything is still perfectly aligned with the 4-year macro cycle, yet people are still in constant disbelief that it will actually happen.
Here's some of the analysis I'm seeing on Twitter... like... what universe do you live on where Bitcoin peaks in OCTOBER and then crashes into the mountain 57.5%? Like, I can't even fathom how people are coming to these conclusions. When has anything like that even come close to happening (spoiler alert: it hasn't). They can all see the dump coming, but not the actual pump that positions us there in the first place. Has everyone already forgot about that Christmas money? Velocity is always highest at the end of the year.
Is Bitcoin bubbled?
Yes, of course it is! The doubling curve knows that Bitcoin is worth like $22k right now. That's the thing about the four-year mega-bubbles. It goes x10+ the baseline value before crashing into the mountain.
What goes up, must come down.
But everyone is calling for the market to come down RIGHT BEFORE it goes up. I'm not sure how these markets are able to psychologically manipulate people so well, but it really is remarkable. Just look at my positioning, I took out a short on Bitcoin for the first time ever and got wrecked two days later. It's like I knew exactly what was coming but always make the exact wrong decision. Quite incredible.
The funny thing is that I believe all these doomsayers are going to get their validation/vindication quite soon. I still think there is a very high chance that BTC flash crashes before the next full Blood Moon on October 20th, and most likely on October 18th. We've had four big pumps in a row with essentially zero pullbacks. A flash-crash is more likely than ever in this exact scenario.
And of course all the doomsayers will come out at $55k or even $50 with their "I told you so" attitudes, but a flash-crash like this couldn't be more bullish, as in my mind it will market a local bottom as we ascend up up up for another 3 months.
It's honestly not very often that we'd get two bullish Q4's in a row. However, this time is different. This time the market tried to price in the mega-bubble an entire year early on top of Telsa and other forms of institutional adoption pumping the market with FOMO. Need I remind everyone's attitude during May/June? How many people were calling for a 2 year crypto winter the likes of which the world has never seen? Such fickle things, humans. Get a grip, fam.
Conclusion
The doomsayers are right! They are just a little bit too early to the party. We see this happen time and time again. Michael Burry lost millions of dollars shorting the housing market before it finally collapsed and then he made a mint. The doomsayers are always right, they are just impatient. Wait 3 months then refactor would be my ultimate advice in this situation.
THIS IS NOT THE SUCKER'S RALLY!
This is the real deal.
And if I'm wrong then it will be obvious within a very short period of time.