Full Stop
Now that I've been in the cryptosphere for this long, certain aspects of the space have become crystal clear for me. No longer do I crawl the muddy trenches with the rest of the plebs, unless of course I'm arguing with strangers on Xitter and getting banned for literally no reason. Just kidding, the reason is catharsis and feeling superior to my peers. You see? I've got this all figured out. Sorted.
Jokes aside it's truly amazing that the emotional pulse of crypto is even more volatile than the price. We are experiencing one of these moments right now in real time. Bitcoin trading at $90k+ with an all time high less than $110k and yet the greed and impatience that we see is absolutely blinding.
It's times like these that I feel somewhat #blessed that I have so much prior experience with gambling. The psychological state of these markets very much mimics the mindset of players within any other casino atmosphere. On a very real level that's what crypto is:
THE CASINO
The amazing thing about crypto though is that it's not just a casino. Economically a casino is inherently a scam and the house will always win. We see this is not the case with the cryptoverse. Houses rise and fall like the flimsy cards they were built on (FTX anyone?). Players can ascend to billionaire status. In theory everyone can win because it's not just a zero-sum game; we are actually building value here "out of thin air" with our blood, sweat, and tears.
Speaking of tears...
We are seeing a lot of tears right now over a very minimal amount of pain. Maybe I'm a little biased right now because Hive is up and I feel like I just doubled my net worth, but somehow I doubt it. Every casino player needs to remember one important fact: YOU can always improve yourself and your game but the average player will ALWAYS be the average player.
There's a sucker born every minute
This is something I learned very quickly playing cards. No matter how much I improved my own game: the players around me never did. This is simply the nature given the Law of Averages. Old seasoned players end up burning out, while green players are constantly arriving fresh off the boat. The average is the average is the average.
This is especially true now more than it ever has been. Crypto is in the brink of complete saturation and mainstream adoption. There will be a flood of newbies, each more ignorant than the last, with the laggards being completely lost. We all know how confused Grandma is going to be trying to navigate this new-age insanity... assuming she can even make it here without metaphorically drowning.
Why are you here?
The caliber of the player when it comes to the casino also plays a huge role in development. Some people are very serious when it comes to competition and trying to make money. But many show up just for the entertainment value. Every time I actually walk into a brick-and-mortar casino I'm floored at how popular slot machines are.
Mindless zombies feeding their money into a blinking machine mathematically guaranteed to lose on the average. It blows my mind. The machines themselves don't even have the fun crank on the right side that you get to pull; just push a button and lose your money now. Meanwhile the poker room is almost always dead with like 1 or 2 tables going.
99% of the population doesn't show up to the casino to think. They show up to be entertained. They show up because they are desperate and need a big win. They show up because they are action junkies and want to feel something with a big bet. They show up because XRP just went x5 and maybe it will go x5 again! Chasing the dragon. People continue to people regardless of how you or I think they should behave. It is what it is. The vibes are vibing.
So what's all the fuss about?
On their way out the door the Biden administration gave the Department of Justice the Greenlight to sell something like $6.5 Billion dollars would of Bitcoin from Silk Road. This despite the fact that the new administration coming in has already vowed that they are not only going to create a federal Bitcoin reserve, but also pardon Ross Ulbricht for his "crimes".
Personally I find this FUD-of-the-day to be somewhat comical, as a couple billion dollars is no longer a lot. The market cap has reached the trillions and there are active billionaires all of the world looking to buy more. This is what happens when we focus solely on supply rather than the combination that is supply and demand. Demand is the real factor in play. Bitcoin and every other crypto is worthless without it. Supply is rarely a problem unless it's DEFI 2020 and every yield farm is a hyperinflationary nightmare... or it's a bear market and every tiny bit of selling pressure create exponential force in a downward death-spiral direction. In the current climate none of these things are true. We just have to be patient and let 2025 run its course. We've still got 51 weeks to go.
So I bought some Bitcoin yesterday.
And I also bought some Rune as well.
Thorchain is getting absolutely hammered and there's fud like this circulating the space.
In light of these concerns, community members have called for immediate action to address the protocol’s structural weaknesses. The most immediate of these is the sunset of the Savers program, which continues to exert downward pressure on RUNE’s price.
Oh would you look at that! Maybe they were printing money that they shouldn't have been printing!?! I could have told you that. But again these are only systemic threats within a BEAR market. Not 2025 mainstream adoption. FUD is FUD is FUD.
Some have called for a more radical solution: Force the closure of all outstanding loans.
Now there's a statement that actually does concern me because I still have an active loan on Thorchain. Every day I wake up knowing I could lose a quarter of a Bitcoin because I didn't pay back my $8000 loan that I took out on the last hypecycle back in October. Sorry... October... 2023. Wow. Time flies. As you can imagine the 0.25 Bitcoin wasn't worth nearly as much back then as it is now.
It's pretty unfortunate that this protocol wasn't more successful because I was going to leverage the hell out of it this year. 0% APR loans with zero chance of liquidation? Simply amazing. But it was literally too good to be true; an unfortunate truth. I'm still in a little bit of denial and believe that 2025 can pull out a win for Thorchain that will make them overconfident and allow liquidity to flow back into this protocol. We shall see. Until then I have to decide if I'm going to pay back this $8600 to get back muh 0.25 BTC. I probably should but I seem to be quite stubborn in this regard.
Checking the chart for signs of life.
We got a death cross a few days ago between the MA(25) and MA(50). This could point to trend reversal but my experience with the MA(50) is that it is extremely fickle and the weakest line of the four I use (25/50/100/200). The MA(100) sits at $85k which I'm very much hoping we crash to because the plebs deserve a wakeup call and some more fear in their diet. I very much want to go long at $85k.
The funding rate for Bitcoin perps went negative yesterday as well, and this almost never happens. When it does it's usually wildly bullish (but didn't last long enough to register this time). We can also see the yellow line I drew back in November is being tested right now. Again my hope is that we breakdown to $85k (or even $80k) as this would be an obvious place to take the other side of the trade and buy the dip. I'd still need to figure out if I'd be moving in with x5 leverage or something a little safer like x4 or x3. An x5 creates a liquidation level at $68k, which is well under the critical $72k support level. Of course then again when I make a plan like this it usually just moves all the way down to $72k and I feel like an idiot for not waiting (even though the trade eventually makes money).
Funding rate hasn't gone negative for real since August and September.
That was a very obvious entry point that I made good money on.
Longing at $28k was super fun not gonna lie.
We just need another opportunity like this to come along for some confidence.
Conclusion
Patience is a virtue. 2025 just started and already sentiment is pretty poor. That's a great sign for the rest of we permabulls. Always take the other side of the herd's mindset. The sheep fears the wolf but inevitably gets eaten by the shepherd.
