Local Lows for Hive Morale (July 15, 2024; 22 cents)
Wrote this post five months ago and it turned out be be extremely accurate in retrospect. A week prior to this post we had started trading sub 20 cents for the first time since the previous cycle in 2020. People were not happy. It was "so over" as they say. Hive was dying. We were completely screwed. The DHF was wasting so much money it was going to kill us. HBD was issuing so much debt we were being buried under the weight of sheer unsustainability.
And then time passed and it all went away.
Of course I didn't call the exact bottom but if you bought anywhere under sub 20 cents it was obviously close enough. And I was saying as much at the time. Of course very few of us actually had money to spend during that period as the only real winners were the shitcoin casino lottery winners. Now we find ourselves 13% in the green today while the rest of the market bleeds 5%. Always nice to get a win once and a while.
During this time of despair a certain someone even challenged me and tried to make a bet that Hive would go sub 10 cents. I knew for a fact this was a winning bet for me, just like it was the last time I did it in 2020. 10 cents is the uncrackable baseline. However I did not take the bet because I did not want to create resentment. It's all very "I told you so". Maybe next time.
The entire vibe on this network has changed because of these last few pumps. You can hear it in the way people talk and what they are posting to the chain. Ah the sweet sounds of number go up. We can also see that the current rallies we are experiencing have much shallower pullbacks than usual and when South Korea literally declared martial law it was barely noticeable. The market is showing signs of great strength and we haven't even hit 2025 yet.
Came for the money; stayed for the money
We like to say things like "came for the money, stayed for the community/tech" when the bear market hits and we are all crawling through the red pit, but on a very real level that's just cope. These are financial networks. The money very much does matter and determines whether we can get actual adoption, stability, and sustainability, or be forever doomed to fringe obscurity. While 40 cents isn't that huge of a boon it definitely takes the boot off the neck of the network and gives us a second to breathe.
Debt ratio:
Checking out HBDstats or HiveDollarMonitor reveals that the network's debt ratio has absolutely cratered back to the 5% baseline that we are so accustomed to. At these levels Hive would have to crash below 5 cents before HBD broke the peg to the downside. It might say 6.4 cents but this doesn't factor in all the HBD that would get converted before such times. It's probably more like 4 or even 3 cents at this point. AKA not gonna happen.
This means that at 15% yield HBD is still one of the most safest and trustworthy holds in the entire industry. Of course nobody wants it because 2025 is coming and we've all loaded up our moonbags ready to take a trip to the mooncastle. So I guess we'll have to circle back to this opportunity in six months or so.
More importantly this pinnacle round trip proves that nothing about HBD's high yield makes it unsustainable, just like I was claiming the entire time. We only have to worry if demand for debt outstrips demand for the governance token that collateralizes it. That's a bull market problem not a bear market one. So keep a lookout.
Perps
So what exciting things are going on with Hive? Well before I forget I want to let everyone know that Hive actually has a futures market on MEXC exchange. This has only been a thing since last September and I didn't notice until last month. So if you want to gamble gamble with longs/shorts there's a non-KYC option to do it.
Besides just gambling this is also a great way to increase risk on an exchange while reducing exposure. You can only lose as much as you put in, but you can then 10x or even 20x leverage that small amount. Not recommended for beginners to be sure.
Some of my dear readers may recall that I got a little spooked about MEXC freezing my friend's account and potentially stealing his money. Thankfully this resolved well after I complained about it on Crypto Twitter and the official MEXC account DMed me asking me for details. They unlocked his account for a couple days so he could make a swift exit to Coinbase. He then proceeded to take the money and ape it into AVAX gaming, which is a bet that's been doing surprisingly well.
Later I found out that his account got flagged because he was using SMS 2FA. My noob friend really put his American phone number into an exchange that doesn't allow Americans. Unreal. I've told him to switch to Google Auth like half a dozen times and he finally switched after this drama. He's even considering making a new MEXC account because... you know... it's non-KYC and only requires an email. lol. Then again with the impending Trump admin: exchanges like MEXC & Binance may officially reopen their doors to us, so that's a silver lining.
LEO
Integration of DASH and MAYA into LEO have brought new users to the Hive network.
Still needs work but overall good stuff.
Zing
My Zing bag has gone from like $4k to $16k recently. Easy x4. Basically Zing's only liquidity pool is Hive (on HE) and it went x2 vs Hive, and Hive went x2 vs USD resulting in an x4 position. The closed alpha is on the cusp of starting and the Zing/Hive LP has an APR of 58% which is obviously pretty good. I'm also told this yield may be increasing as Zing is in dire need of more liquidity. Consider staking some if you want to yield farm and allow the FOMO to continue. Keep an eye on this market.
The delegation reward is 23% as well which is significantly higher than what someone can earn from curation rewards. It feels weird to say but Zing could use a good vulture capitalist here to delegate and just dump the rewards so we get more coins for sale moving into launch. It would seem that most of us are HODLing the moonbag on this one just like everything else.
VSC
Work on the smart contract protocol continues. I'm starting to really reflect on the fact that I haven't built anything here yet and really should get to work considering all these new tools are available like HAF.
SPK network
After a grueling process the ability to store heaps of data off chain using IPFS is coming to fruition. It's very much starting to feel like all of these things will are going to live next year which should bring a good amount of value to the network.
Macro side of things:
- Friendly administration
- Lower interest rates
- Corporate adoption
- Institutional adoption
- Nation-state adoption
- No global shutdown of the world economy.
Yeah... that's quite a lot.
Looking at the last four years of price action reveals that the current move we just made is nothing but a blip on the radar. This is all it takes to get the network out of the funk we were in. Now if we dip it's once again a buying opportunity rather than a slow bleed-out.
We bottomed out on 235 sats and now find ourselves at 430, but the chart shows we can easily get back to 2000. That's an x5... not against USD but against Bitcoin, and Bitcoin can still rally hard with all this unprecedented adoption against USD.
4-year cycle theory shows us it's all about 2025 rather than this or that static target, but 2025 hasn't even started yet. It's going to be a wild one; way more volatile and crazy than 2021. Let's circle back in March and see where we land in the shorter term.
Conclusion
Hive is alive.