Well that was a wild pump.
I feel a bit silly selling the HBD pump at 55 cents... only to have this happen. OOPS! Still, I was able to sell 1000 Hive from my powerdown at 85 cents, so that's nice. I still need to find a good reentry point, as my powered up stack is getting a bit too low for my taste. Would be nice if I can make it back up to 180k Hive powered up, but I'm 40k Hive short and that's a lot of money. At the same time that's the level I was at Jan 6 during the double airdrop, so I'd like to get back to my 'all time Hive'.
Looking at the chart...
We see that moving averages still play a huge part in Hive's price action. All the ones I've chosen are still super relevant. The pink line is MA(25), light blue MA(50), dark blue MA(100), and green MA(200). It was wild to see the price explode out of a weak position far above the MA(200). Pretty good sign of things to come in the mid-term. Unfortunately the chance we dump for 2 more weeks is very high.
MA(100)
We can see for an entire week Hive was getting slapped down by the MA(100) just recently. It seemed like for sure it would dump (weak position strong resistance), and then we pump to 98 cents within like an hour... lol. Wut? I wonder if anyone is making any big bets on this hardfork. It's a huge upgrade, after all.
The problem with speculating on a hardfork is that these are still just infrastructure upgrades. When the hardfork goes live, nothing has been gained, but the market tries to price it in as an instant gain. The real gains only come after people have actually built cool stuff on the new infrastructure. This means speculation pushes the price up early before anything is actually there. Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Sell the rumor, buy the news
The reverse happened just recently during the FED's 75 basis points increase. Everyone knew the FED would raise rates, and it become overpriced-in. Then on the day they actually raised rates we get a pump. When everyone tries to maneuver in the same way, weird stuff like this happens.
Back to Hive.
We are getting a new wave of golden crosses. It's looking pretty good for Hive. 31 cents appears to be the bottom-of-the-barrel gutter-trash low.
Golden crosses everywhere
MA(25) crossed MA(50): This one happened on July 17th and the results have been nothing but spectacular. At the current angles of the lines it looks like the MA(25) crossing the MA(100) is all but guaranteed within a week. Even another dump might not stop it from happening. Same is true with the MA(50), it will cross the MA(100) shortly after. It's also worth noting that the MA(100) will continue to crash until August 22 as the tail end of the average whips into the local low of 31 cents. This should make it even easier for the other two shorter averages to cross in front of it.
The MA(200) is a beast.
This is a line that doesn't move around very easily, as it factors in the price across more than half a year. It still sits around 75 cents, and stands as a reminder that Hive is perpetually oversold and that it's shocking we ever dropped below 80 cents in the first place (damn you LUNA and every one of the dipshit overleveraged exchanges that all went bankrupt). I believe we can expect this MA(200) line to act as resistance... until it doesn't and all three of the other averages cross above it, sparking a crazy bull run in the middle of this shitstorm. I'm liking the odds of Hive by the end of the year. We gonna see fireworks.
Not so fast!
This all happened during the middle of a bearish 2-week cycle. FED raised rates and the economy hasn't imploded yet... meaning they might rates rates again and again until that happens. That's too many headwinds to fight against. Or maybe it's not because crypto is insane. Who knows.
Definitely need to refactor this situation in two weeks. I expect that Hive will continue to deflate after this pump. Hopefully I'll be able to find a nice reentry point. If not then I'll 'only' have 140k Hive. lol. Poor me.
I'll be looking for the MA(100) to HOPEFULLY act as support. So my entry point might be somewhere around 53 cents in two weeks time. Would be nice if it crashed back to 40 cents by mid month but I'm not going to hold my breath on that one. If Hive is anywhere between 55 cents and 40 cents in two weeks... I'm buying. Maybe I'll even DCA into the position like a smart person (doubt it).
Conclusion
If Hive can hold a position above the 200-day moving average, we are going to get an insane bull run. I don't expect this can happen for another month or two, but it appears that Hive (and Bitcoin) are out of the woods after the shock of constant failures and long liquidations we saw just a few months ago. After all, these brutal bottoms have a history of only lasting a couple months. This is not a crypto winter; those only happen after a mega-bubble, which never happened. Now that this is all in the past, not getting such a bubble is a huge blessing. Rather than still being overbought, everything is on super sale.
Is the recession a wild-card? Sure, but we can see that most of the fat has been cut. Dozens of exchanges insolvent; billions of longs liquidated; NFTs and DEFI projects dumped to the gutter. I'd say this is a pretty solid position to be in. All that's left is to wait for the FED to admit they are dumb and played it foolishly. However, by that time it might be 'too late'. Hell, might be too late already to catch the bottom-bottom, but who cares? We are in this to make x1000 gains, not +30%.