I honestly can't get over this...
Look how good the MA(100) has been to Hive for the past week. We've been trading exactly on this line for quite a while now. I've been paying a lot more attention to moving averages and it seems like traders on Binance use them quite a bit as well, with the given defaults being the MA(25) and MA(99).
Added some new lines.
I've added the MA(200) and the MA(50) to the list. I also changed the colors of the MA(50/100/200) to different shades of blue because I feel like those are the most important ones I want to be looking at. Also changed the MA(7) to a dull grey because it can largely be ignored unless we are experiencing periods of massive volatility.
Bitcoin just experienced a death cross between the MA(50) and the MA(200) but so far nothing has happened. We've also entered a Mercury retrograde and the full moon is tomorrow, so there's a lot of weird volatile patterns in play right now in both directions.
Personally I think the last week of January gonna be super bullish, but Feb has always been an insanely volatile and completely unpredictable month. Honestly, looking at chart history, February is consistently the most volatile and unpredictable month of the entire year by quite a huge margin.
I used to paint the above cycle chart with Feb as a red month, because February 2018 gave everyone PTSD. I've since learned that this is quite incorrect and toxic self-defeating thinking. Even in 2018, February started at $9000 and ended at $10k; an overall net positive.
It is only when we reflect on this we realize that we only thought February was bad because Bitcoin had just peaked at $20k months prior, and in our minds we had locked in those gains as if they were all but guaranteed and Bitcoin would continue to spike up. Lesson learned: never lock in gains mentally; lock them in, in the real world. Sell some, short the market a tiny bit with a tiny stack. Hedge the bet so that money is made in both directions.
February is always an amazing month for any day-trader that knows what they're doing (and gets a little lucky). Anyone who shorted BTC in FEB down to $6000 and then longed the dead-cat-bounce into March easily made a small fortune with very little effort. Not too shabby.
2022
We must also recognize that this is not 2018. This is 2022 baby! Look at all the new tools in this chest that we have access to! It's amazing. It's a miracle really. Nobody even knew what AMM was in 2018; now it is the standard for generating exponential liquidity across the entire sector.
So glad we didn't mega-bubble in Q4.
Sure, it would have been really fun, in the moment, for Bitcoin to have spiked to $250k at the end of the year. But then what? We're totally fucked for an entire year? That would have sucked! Now 2022 is open to a crazy host of possibilities.
2022 Bitcoin Doubling Curve
| Jan | Feb | Mar | April | May | June |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $27733 | $29867 | $32,000 | $34133 | $36267 | $38400 |
| July | Aug | Sept | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40533 | $42667 | $44800 | $46933 | $49067 | $51200 |
We aren't that far away from the doubling curve.
And every month, the curve catches up another $2,134.
By the time we get to the end of summer the curve will already be where we are now. This is a good sign for the future. It implies sustainable growth can happen in this year and beyond.
Another thing we have to look at is Bitcoin dominance.
Again, it's just so easy to lock in gains and feel entitled to them without actually ever cashing out. I've got news for everyone: Bitcoin dominance is still only 37%. Remember how it was like 60%+ just a year ago? That's insane. Alts have been MURDERING it, and we all take it for granted (even me). This is something worth reflecting on, and perhaps even meditating on, if you're into that sort of thing.
A simple x2 on Ethereum will basically flip Bitcoin at this point. How crazy is that? And maximalists are still talking major shit about Ethereum as if it has somehow underperformed. LoL... wow... I wonder how many of them will jump out of a 30-story building when BTC finally gets flipped. Honestly the cultishly gatekeeping toxic attitude they have bred over there needs a good slap. Can't make an omelette without breaking some eggs. These are facts.
I guess the real point I'm trying to make here, is that investing in Bitcoin right now is probably a damn good idea. Honestly, what are the odds that Bitcoin dominance crashes even lower than this over the next few months? I mean it's certainly POSSIBLE, especially if we are in the foothills of a mega-bull run like I've been teasing, but still Bitcoin currently has the best risk/reward ratio ever. Very little risk, almost guaranteed reward. It won't go x1000 or anything, but it also doesn't need to.
Waterfall strategy
This is something else we must also consider. Bitcoin dominance could go up over the next 3 months, making it the superior option across the board, and then a mega-bubble would push dominance to all time lows (thinking 25% or less). In fact, I think there is a very very very good chance Bitcoin gets flipped for a few weeks by Ethereum if a mega-bubble is coming. ETH is just a more volatile asset that's easier to spike (likely due to centralized stake and exponentially more smart-contract utility).
If ETH flips BTC, you know shit is about to hit the fan.
That's the perfect time to exit the market 50%. Seriously though. The market would have to become so destabilized for this to happen, but I believe that eventually that's exactly what will happen. Crypto is anything but stable, after all.
Don't forget XRP...
It only takes about an x2 for XRP to flip Ethereum, which again I believe signals peak greed within the market. Many legal experts are saying that the Ripple lawsuit with the SEC will be concluded in April. Can you imagine if they win? Can you imagine it? Holy hell, I certainly can't.
Not only will winning a year-long lawsuit with the SEC spike the price of XRP to obscene levels, but also this could be the huge piece of news that kicks off a mega-bubble in the first place. April puts it right in the pocket to act as a catalyst for 10x gains across the board during a summertime mega-bubble.
Because if Ripple wins that lawsuit, EVERYONE is going to feel bolder; especially institutions. Think about how much big money out there is sidelined because they are worried about regulations and other barriers to entry. All of a sudden centralized shit-ass Ripple actually wins their lawsuit against the SEC? Wow, that's not just good for XRP; that's good for EVERYONE. Money will pour into every crypto if Ripple wins; a tidal wave of money.
Circling back to the Hive chart.
That MA(100) sure is something, eh?
We've touched that line every single day for over a week.
Pretty legendary honestly.
Another thing we need to lookout for is the MA(25) vs the MA(50). Right now the MA(50) is above the MA(25).
They've already death-crossed.
If we keep trading stable like this all these lines are going to start converging around $1.30. This will make it much easier to death-cross or golden-cross depending on fate. However, with all the moving averages fanned out like this I'd say it is still pretty obvious that Hive is still trading within a super-cycle bull market. This is especially true with MA(50) trading above the MA(25). The golden-cross for those averages is already primed to move the market up further if we can get a little bit of a pump going forward.
Looking at 90 cents.
It's also very noteworthy to see the deep support sitting at the MA(200). This is yet another reason to assume that Hive's floor value is at the 90 cent line, and this is also confirmed by the MA(100) on the Hive/BTC pair. 90 cents is an amazing level to buy the dip for Hive, assuming we actually get there before spiking up again. Personally I'll be adding on more at $1.10, $1.00, and $0.90 because I won't want to miss out in case it doesn't get all the way down to 90 cents. I've essentially given up on the idea that Hive can get back to 80 cents at this point. 90 cents is clearly the new floor.
It's also important to note that Hive hasn't seen this level of stability for quite some time. I mean just look at the chart... 9 days straight of trading exactly on the MA(100) line? That's crazy. There's a very real possibility that we don't dip at all from here and the current support line holds stronk. One could hope, especially with all the other bullish indicators we are seeing across other markets.
What about the FED?
So many people are saying that the Federal Reserve is trapped in a corner and they can't actually do what they say they are going to do (raise interest rates). I've seen multiple arguments detailing exactly why the FED claiming they are going to tighten fiscal policy is totally bullshit. Mostly @taskmaster4450 and ZeroHedge, but there are many other economists out there as well coming to the exact same conclusion.
It seems like at some point the FED will have to admit they were totally full of shit and they need to keep rates low. Say that happens in April with a combination of Ripple winning the lawsuit with the SEC... and we can see how easily this market could FOMO into a mega-bubble come summer 2022. These are the things I'll be looking out for to measure possible mega-bubble territory.
If the FED admits that they can't raise interest rates, not only does the stock market get a bounce and crypto get to ride those coattails, but also everyone will be talking about hyperinflation all over again. That further pushes people to dump their cash and get into hard assets that aren't going to lose their value. In this case perception is reality, and it doesn't actually matter if inflation is a threat or not. The perceived threat is enough to give the market an even bigger boost then it would have otherwise.
Conclusion
Hive looks bullish. Bitcoin looks bullish. Ethereum looks bullish. BNB looks bullish. CUB/LEO look bullish. Even garbage XRP looks bullish, which is ironically bullish for everyone.
Again, I'm very good at detecting detecting when volatility is incoming... and have a terrible track record of guessing which direction we are actually headed in (especially short term). For example: if we look at BTC, volume on exchanges is terrible right now. The only way we can not crash at this level is if we move up due to supply shock. I'm betting that this is exactly what will happen. Is this a good bet? Meh?