The next bull run is going to be insane.
As we creep closer to mainstream adoption, it is inevitable that the next bull run will be more impressive than the last one. How can I be so sure? Well, for starters, the last bull run was cut short by the economic recession. Economic recessions only happen around once every decade, and the one we are in right now had something like a 14 year gap. Imagine what happens when we get out of this recession and don't get another one for another 14 years. That's over a decade of unimpeded crypto growth.
But what about THE GREATEST DEPRESSION?
The Greatest Depression is something that I have spoken to often, signaling that the economy is in for an event even worse than the Great Depression back in the WW2 time-period. At this point though I'm starting to believe that this entire concept is just fear-porn. The Greatest Depression will simply never happen because society and technology are too easily leveraged to prevent such a thing. If crypto didn't exist I'd be pretty worried in the long-term, but crypto does exist so I'm not really worried at all. Humanity is slowly creating solutions for the biggest scaling issues we have faced over the last hundred years.
Looking at Hive
So pretty.
Hive is putting off intense bull market vibes. I thought the price would have crashed by now, but it's still hovering up there. Pretty sure it will dump soon but it's nice to know we can still pump like this out of nowhere.
The wave of Golden Crosses is just beginning. Right now it's just the MA(25) moving above the MA(50) and the MA(100), but later this month it will get above the MA(200) if we can hold above the 45 cent line. This is a great place to buy (45 cents), and it was just a month ago that I was suggesting everyone defend 25 cents. My my how quickly the market pivots.
It looks like the MA(50) will also cross above the MA(100) later this month. February is turning into golden cross month, didn't see that coming, but here we are. I blame China and the year of the rabbit. Keep hopping, rabbit friend.
I believe we still have 3 more months of bull trap to go before this thing caps out and hits the glass ceiling. Again my target for Bitcoin is around $45k-$50k, and I believe this to be a conservative estimate. It may end up being that the doubling curve itself acts as resistance during the peak of the next bull trap, which would make the price go even higher.
The equation for the doubling curve is 2^y * 100, where y is the number of years after 2013 and 100 is the baseline $100 we got during that year. 2^9.4 * 100 = $67.5k, so the next pump could take us all the way up to all time highs for a double top before getting slapped back down. Like I said before I'll be taking slight gains at $45k all the way up just to make sure I don't have to sell any potential dips that come after that. I may even need to increase my Hive powerdown amount per week so I have more stake unlocked, or be ready to sell from my CUB/HIVE LP position if the need arises. Feels pretty nice to have 20k Hive sitting in that pool right about now.
Bull run narrative though?
Now that we got all that out of the way, I'd like to talk about the main topic of this post: the narrative for the next bull run. This is another reason why the next bull run will be so much more massive than the next. Technologies are converging and the bugs for the last bull run are going to be patched up.
Looking at history:
- 2013 bull run fueled by halving narrative.
- 2017 bull run fueled by ICO narrative.
- 2021 bull run fueled by DEFI/NFT narrative.
- 2025?
Now you might be thinking I'm jumping the gun a bit, right?
2025? We just started 2023... woof that's so long away! However, when we consider that the market is still oversold and 2025 has a much better chance of dwarfing the previous bull run, we could be in a solid bull run for all three years. This is exactly how 2015/2016/2017 played out. Most of the gains were made in 2017 (like x20 from $1000), but the other years after the 2014 bear market were still pretty damn good ($200 to $1000 in 2+ years). That's what many are hoping for this time around, and I think there is actually a good chance of this happening considering the circumstances. When markets can move up given bad news (high unemployment and low profits) anything is possible.
AI
AI is a crypto theme that goes all the way back to 2017. I got tricked into buying DeepBrainChain (twice?). Lost $100-$200 on that 'gem'. I even did thorough research and knew that it probably wasn't viable. However, this time around AI is obviously not a joke, and AI integrations with protocols like ChatGPT (that we already know work to an impressive degree) are going to be huge during the next run. Even if it's all BS, the hype is going to be x100 more than it was back in 2017 and 2021.
Very important to note that decentralized computing for AI has been described by experts (real experts) as one of the toughest problems to crack. So the best products may be ones with a decentralized currency but use centralized API calls to AI. Given that there may be more and more AI nodes popping up this process may become pseudo-decentralized simply because of how many centralized options there are.
DEFI 2.0 (elasticity & real value)
2020 and 2021 were great for the advent and propagation of DEFI, but the first iteration was full of bugs, as is often the case. As we all know, bugs within the cryptosphere often materialize as scams in the real world when money is involved. A shitcoin was launching like every single day at one point and everyone was loving the ponzinomics of the bull market; hopping from project to project hoping to catch the pumps and avoid the dumps. Degens gonna Degen.
The DEFI ship was full of holes, and those holes are slowly being patched. BOLO for projects focused on building sustainability and elasticity. Every inflation allocation must be taken into account. The community must ask: "Does this generate value for the governance token?" If the answer is no, that inflation should be promptly removed.
Gaming (NFTs 2.0)
The first iteration of NFTs was also a narrative of the last bull run, and also in need of some serious patchwork. NFTs with zero utility selling for millions of dollars is not sustainable, and simply a result of new-money millionaires engaging in greed-based decisions.
The next iteration of NFTs is clearly real utility, and the best example of this is the gaming industry. When NFTs represent actual in game assets that are actually used to play the game, everything changes. Splinterlands is way ahead of the game in this regard. Be on the lookout for other projects as well, especially ones that allow player created content to be added and monetized fairly.
Decentralized Social Media
This is the big one. This is the narrative that, when it hits, will send networks like Hive x100-x1000. Then again, are there any networks like Hive? I have my doubts.
NOSTR and the idea that social media users need to own their data is coming into the public eye. Even if Hive continues to be ignorantly ignored as we have been this whole time, it won't matter. Other networks taking the spotlight is actually in our benefit for more than one reason. First: onboarding noobs and showing them the ropes of crypto is one of the hardest things to do. Let someone else do the grunt work. Second: we don't want regulators sniffing around our chain if we can avoid it. Third: I've yet to see another network that can actually scale like Hive can, so once the others fail Hive will be the obvious overflow solution.
Governance & Subsidization
There are very few networks that have on-chain governance, and the ones that do have very limited powers for stake-holders. Take MakerDAO for example. They can make the interest rate go up or down like a central bank. Who cares? Especially true considering it's a VC owned chain. Again, Hive is different in this category.
Subsidization is going to be a huge benefit going forward, and again Hive is lightyears ahead with the proposal system. The ability to monetize a project simply by voting for it on-chain can not be overstated. Look for other networks who realize the importance of this as well, but look out for premined stacks that can make the decision with a single vote.
Stable coins
Stable coins are going to be a huge regulatory issue going forward. Hive/HBD is basically the last man standing after everything else proved it could not withstand a bear market. Meanwhile, HBD has been outperforming the competition and its previous self for over a year now. It's performance during this bear market has been a thing of legend. Kudos to the 20% yield, the stabilizer, and the HIVE >> HBD upgrades for making HBD such a viable option during a crippling bear market.
Tokens pegged by dollars in a bank are going to have a harder and harder time in this market considering the bloodthirsty regulators and their overbearing regulation-by-enforcement standards. Also yield can not be offered on such things because where would the money for said yield come from? At best that's 5% on a bond... compared to Hive's 20% on HBD. We're absolutely killing it over here. Debt ratio is still at incredibly stable levels even after offering 20% "unsustainable" yields this entire time.
Regulation/Censorship Resistance
Speaking of the regulators, networks that are resistant to imperialist rules imposing their power from the outside are going to be viewed much more favorably. What amazing timing that even Bitcoin maximalists are trying to censor content (NFTs) from their own blockchain during a moment like this. IE: What a terrible time for the most theoretically secure chain to remind the world that censorship is still possible on their network, especially if the community allows it.
Regulators will move in and pick low hanging fruit, and the networks that get pinched will do what they always do. Just look at XRP and the Ripple lawsuit. They tried to throw Ethereum under the bus by tying their fate to ETH's. "If XRP is a security then ETH must be one too!" Expect this trend to continue escalating. Loyalty is lacking in this space, and that's unfortunate.
Privacy
Privacy itself is the root and backbone of fungibility. Don't be surprised if privacy coins make a huge comeback during the next bull run when regulators are doing everything in their power to seize control. XMR is a solid bet.
DEX
Crypto banks (aka centralized exchanges) are at the top of the list when it comes to regulations. That's why the DEX tech narrative will likely be at the top of the list of the next bull market.
BOLO for any DEX that regulators are trying to bash because they have no control over it. Any DEX that is able to add a solid privacy coin into the mix (like Monero) will increase its own intrinsic value by over 10x, and will increase the privacy coin's value by over 10x as well. Privacy coins have suffered greatly over the last 5 years. Centralized exchanges have been delisting them left and right for fear of the regulators. A good DEX changes all of that.
3D-printing
The idea that 3D-printing could be a narrative of the next bull run is a pretty huge stretch, but it will be one eventually. Perhaps the one after next. Still 3D-printing is one of those techs that I have to mention because of how important it is to the merging of multiple technologies.
Conclusion
2017 only had one narrative. 2021 only had two narratives. The next bull run might have a lot more than that as all these technologies converge. If social media is a narrative going forward Hive is going to do a helluva lot more than the tiny pump we just saw. Funny how we gained $75M worth of market cap and it probably cost less than $1M to do it. Low liquid network is low liquid.
Today's Hive pump was nice, and we should all move to defend the MA(200) at 45 cents. That will guarantee that all the Golden Crosses come into play and speculators and community members alike can get excited for the network again. When we look at how many of the boxes Hive ticks (DEX, regulation resistance, stable coins, governance, subsidization, deso, gaming, nfts, defi) it becomes obvious that the amount of things Hive doesn't do (privacy, 3D-printing, AI) is less than what it does. It feels all but guaranteed that Hive will eventually get the recognition that it deserves, and I believe this moment will come sooner rather than later.
Pipe dream, or realistic expectation?
You decide.