Blast from the past.
As some of you may remember I was day trading pretty hard back in March and April. I made some good money and I leveraged those gains to pay my bills and avoid selling Hive and other alts I'd like to hold onto. In fact anyone can see that I haven't really transferred any Hive out of my wallet for quite some time, and even that was actually just HBD I had in reserve for the exact purpose of day trading and paying bills and such. Of course Hive was x2 in value back then compared to now so it's unclear if that strategy is going to pan out, so I guess we'll see!
What I was really shocked by is the technical analysis above...
I drew these lines months ago in March and April and they are still relevant during this whole crab consolidation. Funny how hard it was to believe that we'd trade back at $50k back in March when we kept butting into $72k resistance... even though that's precisely a standard 30% retrace.
Is the bottom in?
There's a very good chance we don't go any lower than we just did on August 5th. At the same time it's not like we're going to breakout above $72k and continue the rally while still in Q3. Sell in May and go away is still quite strong. I'd really like to say goodbye to summer at this point and get firmly into October. Six weeks to go.
Consolidated moving averages.
All of BTC's moving averages are between $61k and $64k at the moment, which is only a 5% range. Whenever moving averages consolidate like this it's hugely bullish. Some might be worried about this potential death cross between the MA(100) and MA(200) but those lines are parallel enough to create another one of those bullish glancing blows we see from time to time. The last time this happened was October 8th, 2023 and we were trading at $28k. We all know what happened next.
$58k gang was right all along.
I spoke on this quite often a few months back... that we exploded past $58k and were guaranteed to return to this critical price point. It won't be long now before the price increases and we NEVER see $58k again. We've traded at $58k a dozen times now going all the way back to the 2021 bull market. It's almost time to say goodbye to this support level forever.
Of course the market still screams weakness and fear in the short term so another dip down to something like $53k is firmly on the table. Just a little something to further confirm these rock-bottom support levels.
Uncorrelated stonks
Every time I see degens on social media complaining about the stock market going up but Bitcoin trading down or flat I cheer. An uncorrelated stock market is hugely bullish and signals that crypto remains untethered and free from bloat. There is no bubble here.
This won't be true forever. In 2025 the old money that pours into crypto is going to retether it back to legacy finance and the stock market and the correlation will return. And then all those doomsayers will be talking about how dumb Bitcoin is for not being a hedge against inflation or the corrupt system it's supposed to replace. Pay no attention to the noobs that ride this emotional roller coaster. Any timeframe not based on the 4-year cycle shouldn't be taken seriously. The bear market of 2026 will be nothing short of an epic disaster, and that flush of liquidity will once again make BTC uncorrelated to legacy finance.
Conclusion
- Standard 30% retrace is in.
- Q3 is ending.
- Moving averages are consolidating as support.
- Bitcoin is uncorrelated to legacy finance.
- The market is extremely fearful.
This downtrend has nearly run its course. The ultimate bottom is likely already in, but there may be a scare or two left to shakeout the remaining unfaithful. I'll probably start day-trading again and set up a long position if $58k fails again and we hit my $53k target. This market turns on a dime and will go from very boring and demoralizing to rampaging bull market at a completely random and unpredictable time. Until then keep the faith.