It's all I'm seeing right now.
The market is blindly kneejerk reacting hard to number go down.
Which means a couple of different things.
First and foremost is means that no one is buying.
Obviously if you're a buyer you want to pay a cheaper price.
I don't think that people realize they're telling on themselves.
But more importantly: is the current price point even worth buying? Not really. It was not that long ago that everything was lower than it was today. People are simply impatient and reminding everyone around them that they've learned nothing about how to manage expectations regarding volatility. This boggles the mind for people like me who have been around since 2017... watching everyone react the exact same way they would have reacted almost a decade ago. Have we learned nothing?
This be Tariffs fault!
Dirty dirty tariffs I tell you. The only interesting thing about the tariff situation is that bag holders are collectively pissed off enough for their to be a major shift in sentiment. Now everyone has an opinion on it, and the opinion is that it sucks because number go down. This is obviously biased but hey sometimes you get the right answer for the wrong reasons.
Now it's just a question of who caves first. Will it be the federal reserve in May during the FOMC meeting where they continue cutting/pausing, or will it be Trump who finally dials it back? I'm betting Trump will continue to remain stubborn until he gets what he wants: which is printer go brrrr.
https://x.com/blockgraze/status/1907911841621356840
Indeed: making number go down makes it very easy to push back up.
And nothing is on fire. Nothing is destroyed. These are paper losses and everyone is acting like they've been permanently robbed. Just... hold your bags until they are higher, if you can last that long. If you can't last that long then not only was your portfolio not balanced and unable to buy any dips... but it was overleveraged in the wrong direction and you've become a distressed seller. I'll make sure to remind everyone during that good times that we all need to take enough off the table to buy up a year or two worth of runway. Maybe even 4 years of runway is appropriate in order to have enough to buy the bottom of the bear market.
Have any of my predictions changed?
No, of course not. I told everyone to wait until mid April before refactoring. Have we reached mid April? No. Has everyone unilaterally decided everything is fucked literally right before mid April? Yes. It's honestly the perfect scenario. Couldn't have asked for better. I should probably jump back into the day trading game here but... alas... I'm going to wait for mid April just in case.
Clearly the lesson has not been learned.
People in crypto kind of deserve this treatment. Stop expecting things from the market. Stop being entitled and deserving of wealth; you deserve nothing. Only an attitude of abundance and a certain level of emotional detachment can navigate a space like this one with any kind of success. You have enough; you don't need more; you can afford to lose more. Everything is fine; unironically... not the meme where the room is on fire.
Yes, tariffs are dumb... we knew that long before they were implemented. They do not solve any problems. They do not stop companies from going overseas and exploiting slave labor in developing nations. They do not incentivize products to be created in the USA, and even if they did we don't have the infrastructure to create those product in the first place. The factories literally don't exist, and spoiler alert nobody wants those jobs anyway.
Oh yeah and tariffs are a tax on the country's citizens that implement them... not on the other country... lol. There's no such thing as "retaliatory" tariffs. These politicians are just using Trump as an excuse to tax their own people and potentially cripple their own trading logistics. This is why other countries have been rolling them back... not because Trump is "winning". That's delusional sentiment.
Real problem says what?
This has been and always will be a distribution problem. Nothing the government does is going to fix the fact that the chasm between the rich and poor is ever-widening. All they can do is act like they are trying to fix the problem. The only way to fix the problem is with crypto or other community-driven initiatives, and as we can see there have been very little solutions created in that field as well. That's what happens when an industry is so valuable that it can fund an exponential level of scams to trick the newbies on a daily basis. Hell the scams are so good even the legitimate traders and speculators want in on the action. Until someone creates something real this is what we have to work with.
Hmmmm
The Bitcoin chart itself is looking pretty great. The downtrend is fully running out of steam. Crab is stronger than descending wedge and there are rock-bottom supports all around us ($77k/$72k/$69420/$58k). The $81k midpoint of the liquidity void (($85k + $77k) / 2 ) = $81k) has been acting as support for an entire week now. There is an impending death cross between the MA(50/200) coming in a couple of days but my experience with the MA(50) is that it's an extremely weird and unpredictable indicator. I usually like to countertrade whatever it does after the fact. Best case scenario is getting a further demoralizing crash down to something like the previous ATH at $74k and I can justify going long again.
The chart continues to show that we are at or very close to the bottom. The fact that stocks have taken an absolute shit and Bitcoin is cool as a cucumber in this range tells me everything I need to know. BTC is fully decoupled from stocks here. I'd honestly like to see the stock market crash like 30% here because that type of panic would create an easy free-money x5 long situation for Bitcoin. Probably won't happen but I'll keep the idea in my back pocket. We'd need some kind of covid-level event like a worldwide banking collapse that bankrupts all the insurance policies. Could happen but can't bet on it happening.
Conclusion
Rich bag holders are absolutely fed up with this tariff situation. It was pretty obvious that the Trump pump to $100k was just fluff with no real substance. Now we have to wait for real fundamentals to kick in rather than whimsical speculation. Mid April approaches and there's still a very decent chance that we get some kind of recovery and room to breath in May and June. Just don't forget that late September is always the best time to buy on almost any given year.
It's also a good time to remind everyone that "going parabolic" means exactly what it means. The vast majority of all gains in crypto happen within something like a three week period. Three weeks... out of the entire year. If you blink or sell early you miss it. It's hard to remember this fact when all we see is slow bleeding. Stop kneejerk reacting to this noise and you'll be just fine.